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FOREX-Euro retreats after resistance holds, yen rises broadly

Published 04/18/2011, 01:51 AM
Updated 04/18/2011, 01:56 AM

* Euro's upside curbed by euro zone debt crisis

* Euro/yen extends drop on stops

* Euro tests support near $1.4350

* Kiwi drops after softer-than-expected inflation data (Updates currency levels, adds comment on yen crosses)

By Ian Chua and Masayuki Kitano

SYDNEY/SINGAPORE, April 18 (Reuters) - The euro extended losses on Monday after repeated attempts to break above a resistance level failed, placing focus on renewed worries about euro zone debt problems and giving the dollar a much needed reprieve after heavy selling in the past few weeks.

The euro fell 0.4 percent to $1.4377 after another try at rising clearly above $1.45 failed on Friday and as markets grew uneasy after Finnish voters handed the anti-euro True Finns party a crucial role in parliament and possibly into government.

The euro hit its lowest in more than two weeks against the yen at 118.94 yen on trading platform EBS and was last down 0.7 percent at 119.14 yen , its drop having gained steam after triggering stop-loss selling.

Finland's parliament, unlike others in the euro zone, has the right to vote on EU requests for bailout funds, meaning it could hold up costly plans to shore up Portugal and bring stability to debt markets. [ID:nLDE73G02L] [ID:nHEL010101]

Still, market players expect the common currency to be supported by prospects of another interest rate hike, after data showed euro zone inflation climbed higher than expected in March to 2.7 percent year-on-year. [ID:nLDE73E12U]

"In the end, I think what it probably boils down to is that there are still some long positions in the euro," said Koji Fukaya, director of global foreign exchange research for Credit Suisse Securities in Tokyo.

Latest data from the U.S. Commodity and Futures Trading Commission showed that currency speculators raised their bets on the euro in the week to April 12 to the highest level since December 2007.

The data also shows that speculators increased their short position in the yen to the biggest in nearly a year.

The yen rose broadly, at one point hitting its highest in more than two weeks against both the dollar and the euro.

The dollar fell to two-week lows below 82.95 yen, and was last down 0.3 percent at 82.88 yen .

EURO FALTERS AFTER RALLY

The euro's rise has stalled since it hit a 15-month high of $1.4521 on trading platform EBS last week, and a trader for a Japanese bank in Tokyo said the euro could face more profit-taking ahead of Easter holidays late this week.

The euro's failure to hold above $1.45 suggests that a bigger near-term pullback may be in store. Earlier, the euro briefly dipped below support near $1.4365, right around the conversion line on the daily Ichimoku chart, a form of Japanese technical analysis widely used among market players.

A clear break of that level and the April 6 intraday high of $1.4350 could open the way toward a deeper drop. Possible downside targets include $1.4263, the 23.6 percent retracement of the euro's February to April rally, and $1.4104, the 38.2 percent retracement of the same move.

Euro/yen fell below a cluster of support in the 119.20 yen to 119.30 yen area that coincides with some intraday lows hit earlier in April. The trader for a Japanese bank said the euro could drop towards 115 yen in the near-term.

Not all are convinced the euro will head that low, however. Satoshi Okagawa, senior global markets analyst for Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation in Singapore, said falls in euro/yen and yen crosses may turn out to be limited.

"There were some stops and a try for the downside, but there is not much reason for the market to head toward a risk-off type of move so I personally think we could see a bit of a rebound," Okagawa said about cross/yen pairs.

The yen had slid broadly in the wake of joint-yen selling intervention by the Group of Seven industrialised nations on March 18, before regaining some ground last week.

That joint intervention and a decline in volatility had put renewed focus back on interest rate differentials and the appeal of carry trades -- a tactic of selling low-yielding currencies to fund investment in currencies with higher yields.

The yen fell to 2-1/2 year lows against the Australian dollar, an 11-month low on the euro and a six-month trough versus the dollar earlier in April. The yen fell on market expectations that the Bank of Japan was likely to lag behind other central banks in rising interest rates, especially when considering the economic impact from a massive earthquake and tsunami that devastated Japan's northeast on March 11.

The dollar rose 0.2 percent against a basket of major currencies to 74.997 , after having touched a 16-month low of 74.617 last Thursday.

The New Zealand dollar took a hit from slightly softer-than-expected New Zealand inflation data that was seen as reducing chances of an early resumption of interest rate rises, and fell 0.6 percent to $0.7945 . [ID:nL3E7FF01F]. (Additional reporting by Reuters FX analyst Krishna Kumar,; Hideyuki Sano and Eric Burroughs in Tokyo)

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