FOREX-Euro retreats after hitting 3-week high; Fed on tap

Published 12/14/2010, 09:48 AM
Updated 12/14/2010, 09:52 AM
EUR/JPY
-

* Euro hits three-week high, but gives up gains

* Investors see rise in U.S. yields as overdone

* FOMC expected to stick with QE mantra

* Australian dollar breaks parity with greenback

(Updates prices, adds US data, comment, changes byline)

By Steven C. Johnson

NEW YORK, Dec 14 (Reuters) - The euro hit a three-week high against the dollar on Tuesday but gave up gains as U.S. bond yields edged higher and investors squared positions ahead of the last Federal Reserve meeting of the year.

After last week's deal to extend U.S. tax cuts for all earners and the subsequent rise in long-dated yields, traders said the market will watch closely for any sign that the Fed could speed up or alter a $600 billion bond-buying program designed to push long-term interest rates lower.

"The Fed could be interesting depending on how vocal they are in either committing to the full amount now that they've got additional fiscal stimulus or whether they feel they have to step on the gas to get rates back down," said Brian Dolan, chief strategist at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey.

Dolan said the euro, which began the week at $1.32 and hit a three-week high near $1.35 overnight, could rally further if it closes above $1.3450, with a move to $1.37 possible.

But traders said that would likely require the Fed to sound an aggressive note on its easing program. Markets expect the central bank to reaffirm policy when it meets at 2:15 p.m. while acknowledging improved economic data. [ID:nFEDAHEAD]

The euro was last changing hands at $1.3383 , unchanged on the day. Earlier, it hit a three-week high of $1.3498 after breaking $1.3475, the 38.2 percent retracement of its November decline,

The Australian dollar hit a one-month high above parity with the greenback as oil prices rose but eased to $0.9970, while the dollar was unchanged at 83.46 yen .

Traders also said year-end positioning and low trading volume as exaggerating some price swings.

US YIELDS STILL IN FOCUS

Data Tuesday showed U.S. retail sales rose by more than expected in November, suggesting U.S. growth is gaining traction. [ID:nN13201818]

The tax cut deal, agreed to last week by President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans, has prompted economists to upgrade their U.S. growth forecasts, but it also pushed up bond yields for fear it will swell the U.S. deficit.

The dollar rose with yields last week but fell on Monday when Moody's warned the tax cuts could move it a step closer to cutting the U.S. triple-A credit rating. [ID:nN13105751]

Some strategists said fear of imminent U.S. inflation and higher long-term rates was premature.

"The recent rise in front-end U.S. yields looks overdone as core inflation isn't going to pick up quickly," said Gavin Friend, currency strategist at nabCapital.

"Also euro zone bond spreads seem to have stabilized on the back of the recent ECB buying which has helped the euro.

The European Central Bank stepped up its purchases of government bonds last week, although the amount bought was still well below levels reached last spring.

The euro also hit a three-week high against the yen , shrugging off the weaker-than-forecast current conditions element of the German ZEW survey. [ID:nDEP003410]

But it fell after the S&P rating agency said Belgium's sovereign debt could be downgraded within six months, reminding investors of contagion risks from the euro zone crisis. [ID:nWEA7396]

(Additional reporting by Neal Armstrong in London; editing by )

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.