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FOREX-Euro retreats, Aussie tries for lost ground

Published 10/19/2009, 12:07 AM
Updated 10/19/2009, 12:09 AM
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* Euro slips vs dollar, yen before finance ministers meet

* Market wary ministers might speak against euro strength

* Although strong comments seen unlikely

* Aussie off 14-month peak but edges up

By Charlotte Cooper

TOKYO, Oct 19 (Reuters) - The euro backed off a 14-month high against the dollar and a two-month peak against the yen on Monday as investors trimmed long positions on caution about what euro zone finance ministers might say about its recent strength.

The high-flying Australian dollar also ran into a spell of profit-taking as investors notched back their holdings after Bank of America posted a large quarterly loss and data offered fresh evidence that U.S. consumers were still struggling.

Euro zone finance ministers are expected to meet later on Monday and Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker said last week the strength of the euro hadn't yet caused too much concern but that a continued rise could slow Europe's recovery.

The euro has appreciated about 6 percent against the dollar so far this year and at the end of last week it neared $1.50, a level it hasn't seen since August last year. As the low-yielding dollar has been sold as a funding currency for higher yielding and higher growth assets, the euro has gained.

"I'm not sure if something strong or coordinated will come from this meeting but from a valuation perspective the markets are worried about the euro," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief FX strategist Japan, at Barclays Capital in Tokyo.

The euro slipped 0.3 percent from Friday's levels to $1.4864. One trader at a European bank said there was support at $1.4840/45. But $1.50 is a target on the market's radar and the trader speculated there might be options barriers at that level.

The euro also eased 0.3 percent to 135.15 yen, after slipping as far as 134.76 earlier. It touched 136.07 yen on Friday, its strongest since late August.

The dollar rose 0.2 percent against a basket of six currencies, edging further above a 14-month low set last week.

The dollar made up a bit of ground on Friday after news of the large quarterly loss at Bank of America and falling consumer confidence dulled investor demand for the higher yielders, which have benefited this year as investor confidence has picked up.

Both the Australian and New Zealand dollars were down from highs set on Friday and some of that pegging back continued into Monday, with the market cautious ahead of more U.S. earnings this week, including bellwethers Apple Inc and Caterpillar.

But, after Australia's rate rise earlier in the month, a senior central bank official said it was entirely appropriate to return to more normal monetary policy settings given that uncertainty from the global financial crisis had eased, and the Australian dollar headed back up to the day's highs.

It rose 0.4 percent up on the day to $0.9180, although short of Friday's 14-month peak at $0.9271.

The Japanese yen held steady at 90.85 yen to the dollar after slipping to its weakest in three weeks on Friday. The yen hit an eight-month peak at 88.01 per dollar earlier in October but a squeeze of dollar short positions has helped the greenback snap back in the past week.

The latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed speculators cut net long positions on the yen. Net short positions on the U.S. dollar also fell, with the value of the dollar's net short position falling to $17.99 billion in the week to Oct.13, from $20.2 billion a week earlier..

Some traders expected the yen to fall to 91.63 yen and then 92.54 yen in the short term -- both were briefly intraday highs for the dollar in September.

"For many, the stars appear to be lining up for a sizeable correction higher in dollar/yen as leveraged retail sellers of the yen return in large size and Japanese institutional diversification into overseas assets has accelerated," said Adam Cole, global head of forex strategy at RBC Capital.

"We don't agree and expect dollar/yen rallies to be short, shallow and generally to be faded."

The pound slipped 0.2 percent to $1.6326 after Bank of England monetary policy committee member Adam Posen said in a newspaper interview on Sunday that the central bank's quantitative easing should continue..

Another market moving factor this week will be a spate of Chinese economic data, including third-quarter gross domestic product numbers. (Additional reporting by Anirban Nag in Sydney; Editing by Joseph Radford)

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