FOREX-Euro recovers vs dollar after US weekly jobs data

Published 11/24/2010, 09:44 AM
Updated 11/24/2010, 09:48 AM

* U.S. weekly jobless claims stoke some optimism

* Euro hits two-month low vs dollar and yen

* Focus on debt worries; Korea tensions

* Dollar index at two-month high (Recasts, updates prices, adds detail, changes dateline, previous LONDON)

NEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - The euro rose from a two-month low against the dollar on Wednesday after a U.S. report signaled some improvement in the labor market which investors took as a further sign of recovery in the world's biggest economy, raising risk tolerance.

But gains were muted by fears the euro zone fiscal crisis, currently centered on Ireland, could spread to other peripheral euro zone countries. Ireland set out a four-year plan to make 15 billion euros in savings to bring down its record deficit but investors were little impressed. For highlights of the plan, click on [ID:nLDE6AN0LJ]

Peripheral euro-zone government bond yield spreads over Germany have widened.

Also, a North Korean statement after Tuesday's artillery clash that the South's action was driving the peninsula to the brink of war [ID:nTOE6AN07C] earlier prompted investors to seek relatively safer-haven currencies.

These factors lifted the dollar to a two-month high against a currency basket, while the problems in the euro zone's periphery meant the euro shrugged off a record high German Ifo business climate index for November. [ID:nLDE6AN0KA]

Earlier, Standard and Poor's cut its sovereign rating on Ireland. [ID:nSYU010701], and a poor response to the sale of new 10-year bonds by Germany did not help the euro's cause either. [ID:nLDE6AN0UJ].

The driver is "still Irish and euro zone concerns and we will be talking about this well into 2011," said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey. "The market will continue to expect Portugal to apply (for aid) and then it will come down to Spain."

EURO ADVANCE

Some traders said if investors were starting to also shun Bunds -- considered a safe-haven asset -- it was hard to see how the euro would stabilise in the near term.

"The Ifo survey was very strong but it did nothing to lift the euro, and the trend is clearly bearish into year-end," said Stephan Maier, currency strategist at Unicredit in Milan.

The euro was up 0.1 percent at $1.3384 , having hit a two-month low of $1.3284 and bouncing off its 100-day moving average -- currently around $1.3297 -- for the first time since early September. It fell nearly 2 percent on Tuesday.

The euro rally began in New York after the government report showed new U.S. claims for unemployment benefits dipped more than expected last week. [ID:nN24211087].

"The U.S. labor market has turned a corner which should be very positive for the U.S. economy in 2011," said Kathy Lien, director of research at GFT in New York.

However, analysts cautioned against reading too much into the euro's gains in holiday thin trading, with U.S. markets closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving.

The euro may test $1.3232, the 61.8 percent retracement of its August-November rally, before targeting $1.3000.

While the euro is down 6.6 percent against the dollar year to date, the single currency is only down 1 percent since April 10, the day before euro zone finance ministers approved a 30 billion euro emergency aid mechanism for Greece, the nation where the current bout of fiscal concerns began.

KOREA TENSIONS

The dollar index <.DXY> was down 0.2 percent at 79.551, having hit a high of 79.995, its strongest in two months.
TAKE A LOOK-Korea situation [ID:nKOREA] Risks to watch on Korean peninsula [ID:nRISKKR] Fed pondered radical policy steps [ID:nFEDAHEAD] TAKE A LOOK-Europe debt problems [ID:nLDE68T0MG] Multimedia on euro zone crisis http://link.reuters.com/kar27p

Analysts said the euro zone worries eclipsed concerns about tensions between North and South Korea, which most believed would not escalate into something more serious.

The dollar fell 1.2 percent against the South Korean won, erasing some of the 3.2 percent advance on Tuesday. . (Reporting by Nick Olivari, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

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