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FOREX-Euro rally stalls after Slovak vote, option barriers ahead

Published 10/12/2011, 02:12 AM
Updated 10/12/2011, 02:16 AM
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* Slovak parliament rejects rescue fund expansion plan, for now

* EUR option barriers loom at $1.37, 105 yen; stops at $1.3710

* Tokyo exporters sell EUR/JPY; insurers sell AUD/JPY

* Yuan bill by U.S. threatens to disrupt markets further

* Bounce in Shanghai stocks helps AUD, EUR off day's lows

By Antoni Slodkowski

TOKYO, Oct 12 (Reuters) - The euro dipped on Wednesday, taking a break from its recent corrective rally made on hopes for a solution to the debt crisis, with fragile risk sentiment souring after the Slovak parliament rejected a plan to expand the euro zone rescue fund.

But the euro and the Australian dollar managed to come off intraday lows after a rebound in Shanghai stocks on talk that the country's sovereign wealth fund has been supporting bank shares.

The Slovakian main opposition party was likely to support the rescue fund measure in another vote this week after the government has resigned, but the twist has added to market nervousness just as EU authorities are working on concrete steps to avoid a wider contagion.

Sentiment was also hit by bickering between the United States and China over a bill aimed at pressing Beijing to lift the value of the yuan and a fall in U.S. stocks futures <0#es:> after Alcoa's results highlighted the impact of Europe's debt crisis on earnings.

"A few risk factors emerged overnight prompting investors to sell riskier assets, but key support levels so far remain intact, indicating that investors are waiting for more news from Europe," said Teppei Ino, a currency analyst at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

Tokyo exporters took the opportunity to sell the euro against the yen after the common currency had gained nearly 4 percent in the week, piling pressure on euro/dollar. Option barriers reported at 105 yen and $1.37 in the pairs also helped halt the recent rally.

The euro last changed hands 0.2 percent lower at $1.3617 , off an intraday trough of $1.3582.

Support is seen around $1.3520-25 -- the 50 percent retracement of the $1.3346-1.3698 rally, while stop losses were cited around $1.3710.

Against the yen, the euro was down 0.1 percent at 104.43 , off a 10-year low hit last week at 100.77 yen.

For the Australian currency, selling first emerged from Japanese life insurers in Aussie/yen, pushing it down 0.4 percent versus the greenback to last trade at $0.9919 , above the strong technical support area of $0.9880-50.

Analysts stressed that euro price moves will likely be subdued before the details of a comprehensive strategy to fight the debt crisis are revealed at an EU summit on Oct. 23.

Banking and regulatory sources said on Tuesday that Europe's banks would have to achieve a significantly stronger capital position under a quick-fire regulatory health check and may need to raise some 100 billion euros ($137 billion).

Traders said that for now they were waiting for a speech by European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, who is set to propose a bank recapitalisation plan on Wednesday.

CHINA BILL

China urged the Obama administration and Congress to stymie the U.S. yuan bill, warning the legislation passed by the Senate could upset efforts to prop up the global economy.

The fate of the bill in the Republican-dominated House of Representatives, however, remains unclear after critical comments from senior Republicans and no clear stance taken by President Barack Obama.

The dollar index gained to 77.76 on the day, but was still some distance away from an 8-1/2 month peak of 79.838 set on Oct. 4. Against the Japanese currency, the dollar was at 76.71 , trading in an ever-tightening range.

The danger of yen-weakening intervention by Japanese authorities has seen the dollar/yen pair stuck in a narrow band off a record low around 75.94 yen set in August.

In addition to Barosso, investors are waiting for minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting due later on Wednesday. Barclays Capital analysts expect the minutes to show most policymakers continued to expect a rebound in growth in the second half relative to the first half, but that risks remain skewed to the downside.

"We will also be paying close attention to how the committee's views on the inflation outlook have evolved," they wrote in a note.

"The majority continues to judge that spare capacity will put downward pressure on core inflation, but several members are likely to share our view that spare capacity is limited and will, therefore, be less convinced that core inflation will subside." (Additional reporting by Ian Chua in Sydney and Masayuki Kitano in Singapore; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)

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