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FOREX-Euro rallies vs dollar but further gains limited

Published 12/03/2010, 03:05 PM
Updated 12/03/2010, 03:08 PM

* U.S. payrolls weigh on dollar, euro rallies 3rd day

* ECB bond buying, euro-zone data underpin euro

* Dollar/yen falls to 2-1/2 week low

(Updates prices, adds quotes, changes byline)

By Julie Haviv

NEW YORK, Dec 3 (Reuters) - The euro rallied sharply versus the dollar on Friday after weak U.S. jobs data, gaining for a third straight day, but the single currency should remain under pressure next week as concerns about euro-zone debt problems persist.

The dollar dropped across the board after Labor Department data showed U.S. non-farm payrolls rose 39,000 last month, much weaker than expectations for 140,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate also increased to 9.8 percent. See [ID:nN02238002].

With a light U.S. economic data calendar next week, the focus will likely shift to overseas events, such as Anglo central bank meetings, Greg Anderson, G10 strategist at Citigroup in New York.

"The strong rally in the euro we have seen in recent days will likely fizzle out next week," he said. "This rally will either peter out or outright pause as there are few drivers left in the market."

Anderson sees the euro ending next week unchanged against the dollar at around $1.34.

"The shorts were shaken out over the last two weeks and over the last few days the longs got destroyed, so many people will choose to just sit on their hands until the end of the year," he said.

While the payrolls numbers further support the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing, a dollar-negative factor, analysts said the Fed would need a series of anemic data in order to exhaust all of the $600 billion allocated for boosting the economy.

"I don't think the big picture has changed much. Clearly, the U.S. is dealing with very high unemployment. But there are indications that the U.S. economy is gradually starting to pick up again," said Ugo Lancioni, currency strategist and portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman in London.

The firm has $180 billion in assets under management and Lancioni helps oversee the company's fixed-income assets totaling about $80 billion.

By contrast, the euro zone's peripheral countries remain mired in a debt cesspool, which should keep the euro's downtrend intact for now. European authorities may have bailed out Ireland, but investors are still worried about the next euro-area country to require assistance.

The euro, however, recovered on Friday, posting its best three-day gain since May 2010, mainly due to the European Central Bank's purchases of peripheral euro zone bonds. On the week, the single euro zone currency was on track for a 0.7 percent rise.

KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS

In early afternoon New York trade, the euro rose about 1 percent at $1.3364 , blowing past the key 100-day moving average at $1.3325 and well above a 2-1/2 month low of $1.2969 hit on Tuesday.

The next key level to watch is $1.3467, the 38.2 percent retracement of the euro's move from its peak at $1.4283 in early November to the $1.2969-trough.

In the options market, analysts reported that the negative market sentiment on the euro has turned about two days ago and are currently neutral.

David Tien, a director at Credit Suisse's Global Algorithmic Strategy and Modeling group in New York, said the extreme demand for bearish options structures on euro/dollar which began in mid-November has significantly diminished as "the extension of special ECB liquidity facilities appears to have calmed the market in the near term."

On Thursday, the ECB extended non-standard provisions, committing to provide unlimited one-week, one-month and three-month funding for euro zone banks until at least April.

In line with the euro's recovery, other euro-zone linked assets The CurrencyShares Euro Trust traded on the Chicago Board Options Exchange rose 1.7 percent to $133.18 . This ETF holds euro on-demand deposits in euro-denominated bank accounts.

Meanwhile, shares in the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund fell 1.12 percent to $22.90. [ID:nN03334719].

Against the yen, the dollar fell to 2-1/2-week lows at 82.53 . It was last at 82.86, down 1.2 percent.

(Additional reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss and Doris Frankel; Editing by Andrew Hay)

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