FOREX-Euro rallies, helped by Ifo; dollar falls broadly

Published 09/24/2010, 11:01 AM
Updated 09/24/2010, 11:04 AM
EUR/JPY
-

* Euro rises on Ifo, resilient to sovereign debt problems

* Dollar/yen jumps above 85 yen then retreats

* Traders cite intervention talk, which is not confirmed

* Dollar index trades at lowest since February

(Adds comments, details. Updates prices)

By Vivianne Rodrigues

NEW YORK, Sept 24 (Reuters) - The dollar fell against a basket of currencies on Friday to its lowest level since February as stronger-than-expected data in Europe and a drop in U.S. durable goods orders hurt demand for the greenback.

The dollar also fell to its lowest in more than a week against the yen, reversing earlier gains, as doubts crept in about whether Japanese authorities, keen to stem yen gains, were responsible for an earlier spike.

An unexpected rise in the German Ifo business climate index to its highest level in more than three years lifted the euro after a sell-off on Thursday. For details, see [ID:nLDE68N0L3]

In the United States, reports on durable goods orders and new single home sales for August were considered soft and reinforced the view the Federal Reserve may provide additional monetary easing to help the economy. [ID:nN23141647] and [ID:nN2377778]

"Overall, both durables and housing numbers suggest the economy is still weak and that the Federal Reserve is still on track for a second round of quantitative easing," said Nick Bennenbroek, head of FX strategy at Wells Fargo in New York. "And this is negative for the dollar and as a result we have seen it fall against the euro."

Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank's global head of G10 FX strategy, added the euro was also helped by the "clean out" of shorter-term euro long positions on Thursday and subsequent rebound.

In late morning trading in New York, the euro was up more than 1 percent against the dollar and hit a session high of $1.3476. The dollar index <.DXY>, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of currencies, slid 0.8 percent to 79.397, its lowest level since February.

The euro proved resilient to euro zone debt worries and record highs in the spreads of Irish and Portuguese bond yields over their German counterparts. [GVD/EUR]

"The Ifo data reversed some of the euro negativity," said Jeremy Stretch, head of currency strategy at CIBC in London.

Against the yen, the dollar was 0.2 percent lower at 84.16 yen . It fell to 84.12 yen according to Reuters data, its lowest since Sept. 15, when Japanese authorities confirmed they had intervened to sell yen in the currency market.

But earlier, the dollar climbed suddenly to 85.38 yen from about 84.55 in Asian trade, sparking talk the Japanese authorities may have intervened again.

"There was an overnight spike in dollar/yen, which sparked talk of intervention, but that has not been backed up and we have seen it dribbling back lower," said Stretch.

The dollar also hit a two-and-a-half year low of 0.9780 Swiss francs , below a reported barrier at 0.9800 francs, with the Swiss currency helped by safe haven buying as equity markets fell.

UPWARD PRESSURE ON YEN

The euro also gained 1 percent to 113.52 yen, having earlier jumped to 113.73 in tandem with the spike in dollar/yen.

Japanese officials stayed silent on whether they had intervened. Top currency diplomat Rintaro Tamaki declined to comment, Jiji news agency reported, and the Bank of Japan and the government also had no comment. [ID:nTKU106266].

Japan intervened for the first time in six years last week in repeated action that pushed the yen down from a 15-year high of 82.87 per dollar and shunted it above 85.

The dollar stayed above 85.00 yen until the Fed signaled this week that it might take more quantitative easing steps, putting widespread selling pressure on the greenback.

"With stock markets retreating and a general pullback in risk appetite, the yen and the Swiss franc will be supported, making the BoJ's job harder," said Kenneth Broux, markets strategist at Lloyds TSB Financial Markets.

Some dealers speculated an apparent lack of complaint by U.S. President Barack Obama about last week's intervention when he met Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan late on Thursday was seen as tacit approval by Washington of Japan's action.

Obama, who urged Chinese premier Wen Jiabao to take more action on the yuan, did not mention currencies when he met Kan, Kyodo news agency reported.

(Additional reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss in New York and Jessica Mortimer in London; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

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