FOREX-Euro limps off lows but seen vulnerable

Published 12/09/2010, 11:33 PM
Updated 12/09/2010, 11:36 PM

* Euro on hold but looks weak on charts

* Strong Chinese trade data marginally helps risk currencies

* But expectations of Chinese rate hike overwhelm

By Ian Chua and Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, Dec 10 (Reuters) - The euro gained some reprieve on Friday, but fears of more problems emerging from the euro zone's fiscal mess and doubts over whether U.S. bond yields have peaked kept traders cautious of chasing it higher.

While strong Chinese export and import figures provided commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar with a minor lift, expectations of a rate hike by Chinese authorities as soon as this weekend kept buying to a minimum.

The euro last traded at $1.3243, barely changed from late New York levels and having pulled off a low of $1.3164 on trading platform EBS.

Still, the currency's intraday highs have been getting lower since Monday, normally a sign of an imminent move down.

"I still think the bias is for the dollar to rise in general. U.S. bond markets seem to have calmed down for now. But if we have strong U.S. data on retail sales and so on, their yields could easily rise again," said a trader at a Japanese brokerage house.

The next key target for the euro is at $1.3150, followed by its 200-day moving average around $1.3115. Traders see the euro falling back to its December low of $1.2970 in the coming weeks.

"Short-term risks remain to the downside for the euro because the peripheral problems remain unresolved," said Paul Robinson, strategist at Barclays Capital.

Fitch became the first ratings agency to strip Ireland of its A credit status on Thursday, slashing it by three notches to BBB+, pointing to the fiscal costs of restructuring.

Ireland's government will also seek parliamentary approval for an 85 billion euro ($113 billion) IMF/EU rescue package next week.

While the downgrade did not help the euro, the currency's rebound from its low suggested problems in Ireland may no longer be having a major impact on the euro, as traders shift focus to the bigger economies in the euro zone such as Spain, some market players said.

"The euro reacted well to the Fitch news on Ireland and that really tells you that maybe this story is too well known and traders don't really want to sell it," said Robert Rennie, chief currency strategist at Westpac Bank.

CHOPPY SESSION

Thin year-end volumes are likely to make for a choppy session, traders said.

"The market is getting thin, making prices moves susceptible to big flows. This is a market where you shouldn't expect too much logic," said a trader at a U.S. bank.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback's performance against a basket of major currencies, was little changed at 79.99, struggling to break through the 80.00-81.50 barrier that capped its November rally.

Against the Japanese currency, the greenback last traded at 83.75 yen, not far off a session low around 83.50 yen plumbed following the Treasury auction, which showed healthy foreign demand for the longer-dated U.S. debt.

The dollar's 14-day, 21-day and 90-day moving averages as well as the ichimoku tenkan line are all clustered around 83.40-60, making the area a strong support level.

But the greenback's repeated failure since late last month to take out resistance around 84.40 is encouraging many traders to take profits near that level, leading to expectations that its 83.50-84.50 range will persist for now.

"The possibility of a Chinese rate hike is an obstacle for the dollar/yen to test 85 yen," said Etsuko Yamashita, chief economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.

Expectations of Chinese tightening also kept the growth-linked Australian dollar on a leash.

The Australian dollar rose 0.1 percent to $0.9852 helped by data showing growth in both Chinese imports and exports beat expectations in November.

But the currency kept some distance from Tuesday's 3-½ week high of $0.9966. (Additional reporting by Ian Chua and Reuters FX analysts Krishna Kumar in Sydney; Editing by Joseph Radford)

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