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FOREX-Euro jumps vs dollar despite Greece risks

Published 04/19/2011, 04:27 PM
Updated 04/19/2011, 04:28 PM
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* Scope for higher ECB interest rates remains

* Core euro zone growth remains solid, according to data

* Canadian dollar jumps on inflation, Aussie in demand (Updates prices)

By Steven C. Johnson

NEW YORK, April 19 (Reuters) - The euro rebounded against the dollar on Tuesday as strong economic data reassured markets about growth in major euro zone countries even as fears mount that Greece may have to restructure its debt.

The data showing April business activity in Germany and France outpaced the 15 other euro-zone countries helped drive up the euro, a day after it suffered its biggest selling day in five months.

The health of bigger euro zone countries suggest interest rates in the bloc, which rose this month, could rise again to counter price pressure, increasing the euro's appeal.

That outlook lessened the impact of fears over Greece.

A German government adviser said Tuesday a restructuring of Greek debt was inevitable, and analysts conceded that such an outcome would be a negative for the euro.

The euro on Tuesday rose above $1.43, well off Monday's two-week low of $1.4155.

A path toward higher interest rates is not as clear in the United States, which has yet to begin monetary tightening, while Japanese rates are expected to remain low as the country rebuilds after a huge earthquake.

"There's a battle of the uglies going on," said Standard Chartered analyst David Mann, and for now the euro's winning.

Mann said the euro looks set to retest 15-month highs above $1.45 hit after the European Central Bank hiked rates.

The euro was last up 0.7 percent at $1.4333. Traders said a move above $1.4250 triggered automatic buy orders that helped accelerate the rise.

The dollar fell 0.1 percent to 82.51 yen and slipped 0.8 percent to $0.9562 Canadian dollars after Canada's inflation rate hit a 2-1/2-year high in March, jacking up pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates.

THE FISCAL CHALLENGE

The debt-burdened United States also lags other major economies when it comes to tightening fiscal policy, another long-term dollar negative, said Dan Dorrow, head of research at Faros Trading in Stamford, Connecticut.

Standard & Poor's this week threatened to cut the United States' prized AAA credit rating unless the White House and Congress can slash the huge budget deficit within two years.

Dorrow said that "draws attention to and may catalyze future budgetary cuts that will restrain aggregate demand, keeping the Fed very accommodative and the dollar weak."

Greece, Ireland and Portugal -- the three troubled euro zone countries facing the harshest budget cuts -- account for 6 percent of euro zone output, Dorrow said, suggesting more "gentle fiscal headwinds" and allowing the ECB room to hike.

But some traders said the euro could encounter more selling ahead of the Easter holidays. Net euro long positions rose to their highest since late 2007 in the week to April 12, recent data showed, leaving scope for a reversal.

The blemishes on both the U.S. dollar and the euro should continue to boost the comomdity-sensitive Australian dollar, Mann said.

The Aussie was trading at $1.0517, near 29-year highs. Australia's high benchmark interest rate and its role as a raw materials supplier to a booming Chinese economy have increased its appeal.

"The Aussie around $1.05 is a pretty major psychological level, but given Australia's impressive terms of trade, its strong growth numbers and the resilience of China, there's a case to be made that we haven't seen the high yet," he said. (Additional reporting by Wanfeng Zhou; Editing by Leslie Adler)

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