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FOREX-Euro hits 7-mth low vs dollar on debt woes, ECB eyed

Published 02/04/2010, 04:36 AM
Updated 02/04/2010, 04:39 AM

* Euro hits 7-mth low vs dollar on euro zone fiscal problems

* Dollar at six-mth high versus basket of currencies

* Focus on ECB and BOE meetings later in the day

(Adds quotes, details; previous TOKYO)

By Neal Armstrong

LONDON, Feb 4 (Reuters) - The euro hit a seven-month low against the dollar, knocked by concerns over the fiscal health of peripheral euro zone countries ahead of a European Central Bank policy decision later on Thursday.

Worries over Spain and Portugal have increased as investors speculate the two countries may face similar problems to Greece. [ID:nLDE6121AC] Such concerns pushed the safe-haven dollar to a six-month high versus a currency basket.

Traders awaited any related comments from ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet at a news conference scheduled for 1330 GMT, after the policy meeting, which is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold. [ID:nLDE6110RC]

"The market will be closely watching any comments Trichet has to make on the fiscal situation in the euro zone, which could lead to volatility in the currency," said Lauren Rosborough, currency analyst at Westpac.

The euro hit a seven-month low versus the U.S. dollar of $1.3831, according to Reuters data, as the much-touted $1.3850 option barrier gave way.

At 0930 GMT it was trading down 0.4 percent on the day at $1.3837.

"Market players are now watching to see if the euro will keep heading towards $1.3700 or maybe even $1.3500," said a trader for a major Japanese bank in Tokyo. Further option structures were said to be in place at $1.3800 and $1.3750.

Traders sold the single European currency on the view that dismal finances in euro zone countries may hinder any economic improvements in the region, increasing the probability that the U.S. economy may recover faster.

U.S. data on Wednesday showed signs the job market was stabilising while the Institute for Supply Management's index of non-manufacturing companies rose to 50.5 from 49.8 in December. [nN03150829].

All that bodes well for the non-farm payrolls numbers due on Friday. A Reuters poll estimates 8,000 jobs were added to the economy. That compares with a forecast of 5,000 jobs being added in a larger survey of 80 economists. [nN03175623]

The dollar <.DXY> hit a six-month high of 79.623 versus a basket of currencies, trading well above its 200-day moving average. Technical traders said the next resistance was at at 80.07, which would be the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the fall from 89.624 to 74.17 in 2009.

NEW ZEALAND/AUSTRLIA

The New Zealand dollar hit a five-month low of $0.6939 after data showed the country's jobless rate rising to a 10-year high, prompting markets to scale back expectations of an interest rate rise before mid-year. [ID:nSGE6110KG]

The Australian dollar touched a six-week low of $0.8772 after figures showing Australia's retail sales fell more than expected in December, although that came after an upwardly revised jump in November. [ID:nSGE6120NF]

The Australian dollar remained soft in the wake of the Reserve Bank of Australia's surprise decision this week to hold off from raising interest rates.

Sterling was largely flat at $1.5880 before the Bank of England was expected to pause its quantitative easing programme when it ends its policy meeting later in the day. [ID:nLDE6122M4]

The dollar dipped 0.2 percent against the yen to 90.74 , ceding some ground after hitting a two-week high of 91.28 yen on Wednesday helped by better U.S. economic data and higher U.S. yields.

(Additional reporting by Masuyaki Kitano in Tokyo; Editing by Nigel Stephenson)

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