FOREX-Euro firm but lacks drive as consolidation seen due

Published 10/12/2010, 08:51 PM
Updated 10/12/2010, 08:56 PM

* Dollar index soft, not far off 9-month low

* Dollar short-covering of previous day loses steam

* But euro lacks push after NY gain, consolidation seen

By Charlotte Cooper

TOKYO, Oct 13 (Reuters) - The euro on Wednesday held on to gains made after minutes of a Federal Reserve meeting showed easier policy might be needed "before long", forcing a pause in a dollar rebound and leaving the greenback near key lows.

But the euro did not follow through strongly on the previous session's gains and was unable to clear $1.4000 decisively, and dealers said more consolidation might well be in order if the euro balked again at that level.

A rise in U.S. Treasury yields, coming on the back of a lacklustre debt sale, failed to give the dollar much of a boost against the yen and it languished near a nine-month trough against a basket of currencies.

The market has become very short dollars as expectations of more quantitative easing by the Fed have increased, making it harder for players to sell it down further. But at the same time, this has not yet given the greenback legs to correct higher.

"Dollar shorts have been piling up but it seems this is not sufficient to reverse the dollar's trend," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief FX strategist Japan at Barclays Capital.

"The expectation for the Fed to make additional easing is very strong, and (so is) the associated weakness of the dollar despite the fact that U.S. long-term yields are rising."

Instead, dealers said some consolidation in the dollar pairs may be likely, because some trends looked a little tired for now.

Minutes of the Fed's Sept. 21 meeting showed officials thought the struggling U.S. recovery might soon need more help and they discussed several ways to provide it, including possible adoption of a price-level target and the possibility of buying more longer-term U.S. government debt.

The Fed's comments were in sharp contrast to those from European Central Bank Governing Council member Axel Weber who on Tuesday said the ECB's government bond-buying programme has not worked and should be scrapped.

The euro firmed 0.1 percent to $1.3937 but was still a cent below last week's eight-month high of $1.4030, which is now seen as the target to beat if it is to push higher rather than correct downwards.

Resistance was expected at $1.3985, Friday's session high, with talk of stop-loss buy orders lined up above that level, while its 200-week moving average sits at $1.3926.

The dollar index was soft at 77.256, not far above a nine-month low of 76.906 set last week. However it has now bounced off the 76.90 area twice in the past week.

Dollar/yen was flat at 81.75 yen, supported by nervousness that Japanese authorities could intervene the closer it gets to its record low of 79.75 yen. Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said in parliament that he could not answer whether or not Japan would conduct intervention.

The dollar hit a 15-year low of 81.37 yen on Monday.

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