FOREX-Euro finds some solace but still looks shaky

Published 12/10/2010, 01:37 AM
Updated 12/10/2010, 01:40 AM

* Euro on hold but looks weak on charts

* Strong Chinese trade data marginally helps risk currencies

* But expectations of Chinese rate hike overwhelm

By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, Dec 10 (Reuters) - The euro gained some reprieve on Friday, but fears of more problems emerging from the euro zone's fiscal mess and doubts over whether U.S. bond yields have peaked kept traders cautious of chasing it higher.

Strong Chinese export and import figures provided commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar with a minor lift, but expectations of a rate hike by Chinese authorities as soon as this weekend kept buying to a minimum.

The euro had edged up 0.1 percent on the day to $1.3250, extending its rebound from a low of $1.3164 on trading platform EBS on Thursday.

Still, the currency's intraday highs have been getting lower since Monday, normally a sign of an imminent move down. Traders say no end is in sight for the debt crisis with European leaders now clashing over the idea of joint euro zone bonds.

"I still think the bias is for the dollar to rise in general. U.S. bond markets seem to have calmed down for now. But if we have strong U.S. data on retail sales and so on, their yields could easily rise again," said a trader at a Japanese brokerage house.

The next key target for the euro is seen at $1.3150, followed by its 200-day moving average around $1.3115. Traders said the euro may fall back to its December low of $1.2970 in the coming weeks.

"Short-term risks remain to the downside for the euro because the peripheral problems remain unresolved," said Paul Robinson, a strategist at Barclays Capital.

Fitch became the first ratings agency to strip Ireland of its A credit status on Thursday, slashing it by three notches to BBB+, pointing to the fiscal costs of restructuring.

Ireland's government will also seek parliamentary approval for an 85 billion euro ($113 billion) IMF/EU rescue package next week.

While the downgrade did not help the euro, the currency's rebound from its low suggested problems in Ireland may no longer be having a major impact on the euro, as traders shift focus to the bigger economies in the euro zone such as Spain, market players said.

CHOPPY SESSION

Thin year-end volumes are likely to make for a choppy session, traders said.

"The market is getting thin, making prices moves susceptible to big flows. This is a market where you shouldn't expect too much logic," said a trader at a U.S. bank.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback's performance against a basket of major currencies, slipped about 0.15 percent to 79.93, struggling to break through the 80.00-81.50 barrier that capped its November rally.

Against the Japanese currency, the greenback last dipped to 83.69 yen, not far off Thursday's low of 83.51 yen on EBS plumbed following the 30-year Treasury auction, which showed healthy foreign demand for the longer-dated U.S. debt.

The dollar's 14-day, 21-day and 90-day moving averages as well as the ichimoku tenkan line are all clustered around 83.40-60, making the area a strong support level.

But the greenback's repeated failure since late last month to take out resistance around 84.40 is encouraging many traders to take profits near that level, leading to expectations that its 83.50-84.50 range will persist for now.

"There are heavy sell orders above 84 yen. As it's getting difficult to build up new positions ahead of the Christmas holidays, the dollar is unlikely to break above that resistance unless there are further rises in U.S. bond yields," said a Japanese bank trader.

Market player may be taking profits from gains in cross/yen this month, capping the dollar/yen amid speculation the Chinese central bank could raise rates to curb inflation.

Fuelling those expectations, China moved forward the release of November economic data, including the closely watched inflation figures, to Saturday from Monday.

"The possibility of a Chinese rate hike is an obstacle for the dollar/yen to test 85 yen," said Etsuko Yamashita, chief economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.

Expectations of Chinese tightening also kept the growth-linked Australian dollar on a leash.

The Australian dollar rose 0.15 percent to $0.9857 helped by data showing growth in both Chinese imports and exports beat expectations in November.

But the currency kept some distance from Tuesday's 3-½ week high of $0.9966. (Additional reporting by Ian Chua and Reuters FX analyst Krishna Kumar in Sydney; Editing by Joseph Radford)

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