FOREX-Euro falls to 7-week low on euro zone debt fears

Published 11/16/2010, 12:39 PM
Updated 11/16/2010, 12:44 PM

* Euro falls through $1.35, dollar/yen at six-week high

* Greece risks missing its fiscal targets

* Aussie, Canadian dollars fall on risk aversion (Updates prices, adds comment)

By Wanfeng Zhou

NEW YORK, Nov 16 (Reuters) - The euro fell to a seven-week low against the dollar on Tuesday amid heightened worries about a deepening euro zone debt crisis with losses accelerating after breaking key support levels.

The dollar rose broadly, climbing to a seven-week peak versus a basket of currencies as sharply lower stock and commodities prices boosted the greenback's safe-haven allure. The stronger dollar also prompted investors to unwind bets against the U.S. currency built up in recent months.

The euro dipped below $1.35 after taking out options barriers and support in the $1.3550 area. The single currency will likely stay weak in the near term as investors focus on debt troubles in Ireland and other European economies.

European officials are weighing a rescue package of 80 billion to 100 billion euros for Ireland and a separate, smaller bailout for its hard-pressed banking sector, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday.

Ireland has come under intense pressure over its debt crunch, with a top European Union official saying the future of the 27-country union was at stake.

Adding to worries was news that Greece will mostly probably miss its fiscal targets this year and next and Austria has not yet submitted its contribution to the aid package for Greece for December. An official from Austria said it's not seeking to block aid for Greece.

"What's the driving the euro is just all the sovereign risk out of Europe," said Jack Iles, a portfolio manager at MFC Global Investment Management in Boston. "That's driving sentiment across the board for risk assets and that probably will not go away in the next 48 hours."

The euro last traded down 0.6 percent at $1.3498, after hitting a session low of $1.3491 on trading platform EBS, its weakest since Sept. 28.

Downside targets include $1.3463, a 50 percent retracement of the euro's September-November rally, and $1.3364, a 38.2 percent retracement of its June-November rally.

Kathy Lien, director of research at GFT in New York, said an agreement on a bailout for Ireland would be bearish for the euro.

"On the day news of a Greek bailout emerged, the euro fell about 100 pips and went on to fall further in the weeks that followed. I don't see any solid support in the euro until $1.34," she said.

RISKIER CURRENCIES FALL

Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed currency speculators cut long euro positions significantly in the latest week as they continued to trim bets against the dollar.

Traders said leveraged funds had flipped long euro/dollar positions, suggesting year-end position adjustment may favor the dollar.

The euro gained in earlier trading after a survey by the ZEW think-tank showed German analyst and investor sentiment rose more than expected in November.

The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, gained 0.9 percent to 79.201, after hitting a high of 79.246, its strongest since Sept. 28.

The dollar hit a six-week high of 83.51 yen, buoyed by a recent rise in U.S. bond yields It broke through resistance on daily Ichimoku charts at 83.17 yen, the bottom of the cloud. The top of the cloud was at 84.13.

Sterling fell 1.1 percent to $1.4893 after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said the central bank could do further quantitative easing if that turns out to be necessary."

A broad pullback in risk appetite hit higher-yielding, commodity-linked currencies. The U.S. dollar jumped 1.4 percent against the Canadian dollar, while the Australian dollar fell to its lowest in over two weeks at $0.9727 amid fears the China will tighten monetary policy.

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