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FOREX-Euro falls broadly, stung by Greece, U.S. data eyed

Published 01/15/2010, 06:28 AM
Updated 01/15/2010, 06:33 AM

* Euro/dlr falls 0.9 percent on Greece concerns

* Euro hit by rumour, later denied, of Merkel resignation

* Market awaits JPMorgan results. U.S. data

(Adds comment, updates prices)

By Neal Armstrong

LONDON, Jan 15 (Reuters) - The euro fell broadly on Friday as concerns about the struggling Greek economy highlighted weakness in the euro zone and bolstered expectations interest rates in the region will stay low for months.

Market participants said rumours German Chancellor Angela Merkel may resign also stung the euro, although they were later denied.

Investors also awaited a fourth-quarter report later in the day from JPMorgan Chase & Co., which kicks off the year-end earnings season for major U.S financial institutions, and U.S. economic data.

Investor confidence in Greece has fallen as its deficit has ballooned and credit ratings have been cut, weighing on the euro in the past couple of months.

Analysts said the market was uncertain about how Greece would repay its debts, and that speculation remained high it would probably face difficulties pushing through any recovery plan.

"Concerns over Greece will weigh on the euro until the Ecofin's judgement on the government's latest fiscal plan," said Chris Turner, head of currency strategy at ING. The Ecofin group of European Union finance ministers will judge the plan next month at the earliest.

Greece's fiscal problems were highlighted in comments from European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, who said on Friday Europe was facing a "major debt problem".

Trichet signalled on Thursday that euro zone interest rates would remain firmly on hold at a record low of 1.0 percent. The ECB kept them unchanged for the eighth month in a row, in line with market expectations.

By 1015 GMT, the euro was down 0.9 percent on the day at $1.4390, near a session low around $1.4380 hit in earlier trade. Against sterling, it fell to a four-month low of 88.11 pence.

MERKEL RUMOUR

The single European currency fell sharply in Asia, when rumours that Merkel would resign followed the publication of a Time magazine report about her domestic political problems. A German government spokesman quickly denied those rumours.

The euro extended losses in early European trade, but staved off further falls due to demand from Middle Eastern buyers around the day's low. Its 21-day moving average around $1.4380 was also seen offering some support.

The euro's fall boosted the dollar, which rose despite weak U.S. retail sales and jobless claims data on Thursday. Investors awaited U.S. CPI numbers and the New York Fed's manufacturing survey later on Friday for clues about the pace of the U.S. economic recovery.

"It's a macro race between the U.S. and the euro zone," said Peter Frank, currency strategist at Societe Generale in London, adding that the dollar may benefit further if the data comes in stronger than expectations.

Turner at ING said he remained a cyclical dollar bull, although he added that Thursday's retail sales data and a surprisingly weak reading of U.S. payrolls last week had frustrated that view.

The dollar fell 0.4 percent to 90.66 yen, its lowest in nearly four weeks, as the yen gained broadly on the back of a slide in higher-yielding currencies, which suffered from investors cutting back risky positions.

Concerns about the global economy, triggered in part by the U.S. data, hit the Australian the New Zealand dollars, which each fell around 0.6 percent against their U.S. counterpart while dropping 1.2 percent versus the yen.

The euro also fell 1.2 percent to 130.50 yen, its weakest in nearly four weeks.

The dollar index was 0.6 percent higher at 77.165.

(Additional reporting by Naomi Tajitsu; Editing by Nigel Stephenson)

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