FOREX-Euro falls broadly, burdened by periphery nerves

Published 11/26/2010, 06:23 AM
Updated 11/26/2010, 06:28 AM
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* Euro slides to fresh two-month low vs dlr

* Portuguese govt spokesman denies bailout pressure report

* Dollar rises broadly, Aussie tumbles on rate view

(Adds quote, detail)

By Neal Armstrong

LONDON, Nov 26 (Reuters) - The euro fell to a fresh two-month low against a resurgent dollar on Friday as mounting speculation that Portugal will need to follow Ireland in seeking financial aid further unsettled nervous investors.

The Australian dollar tumbled after the Australian central bank quashed chances of an imminent rate hike and the yen hit a seven-week low against the dollar, with fresh sabre-rattling by North Korea helping the U.S. currency.

Investors rattled by Ireland's debt problems have pushed the borrowing costs of Portugal and Spain, seen as the next weakest euro zone peripheral states, to record highs.

The Financial Times Deutschland reported, without revealing its sources, that a majority of euro zone members and the European Central Bank were urging Portugal to apply for a financial bailout. [ID:nLDE6AO26F]

A Portuguese government spokesman denied the report, while Spain's Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said investors shorting Spain were mistaken. [ID:nLSB001017] [ID:nMDT009533]

"Officials now seem to be pressing Portugal to take aid and that's unsettling investors. Peripheral issues are unlikely to go away in the short term and the euro will remain under pressure into the end of the year," said Manuel Oliveri, currency strategist at UBS in Zurich.

The euro fell 1 percent on the day to $1.3217, its lowest since late September, taking out option barriers at $1.3250 along the way. Traders cited reports of major Asian sovereign demand placed into $1.3200.

"Our data shows there are noticeable bond outflows from Spain and Italy, which suggests investors are becoming more unsettled," said Simon Derrick, head of currency research at Bank of New York Mellon.

"The case looks set for further euro weakness," he said.

Technical analysts highlighted the break of support at $1.3232, the 61.8 percent retracement of the euro's August to November rally, adding the 200-day moving average at $1.3131 was the next key level to watch.

The euro fell broadly, shedding 0.7 percent on the day against both the yen and the Swiss franc .


http://link.reuters.com/fac76q

Euro zone debt graphic http://r.reuters.com/hyb65p

Interactive timeline http://link.reuters.com/nyx95q


Further boosting the dollar, North Korea said impending military exercises by South Korea and the United States were pushing the region towards war, days after it launched its heaviest bombardment of the South since the 1950-53 Korean War. [ID:nL3E6MQ058]

The dollar rose 0.1 percent to 83.67 yen, having briefly touched 83.97, a level last seen in early October, and rising further from a 15-year low of 80.21 yen hit at the beginning of this month.

RISING OPTIMISM

Rising optimism on the U.S. economy favoured the dollar, with a fall in jobless claims published on Wednesday fuelling speculation that next week's monthly non-farm payrolls data could be strong as well, traders said.

The dollar posted a bullish signal after it cleared major resistance at the top of its Ichimoku cloud at 83.61, with traders reporting option-related offers at 84.00 capping gains. The next resistance was said to be the 100-day moving average at 84.10, an indicator which has not been breached since June.

The Australian dollar fell sharply as Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens dampened any prospect of an imminent interest rate hike, saying rates were just right and the bank might not move on policy for some time. [ID:nWLF004926]

The Aussie fell 1.6 percent to $0.9643 , dropping below its 55-day moving average of $0.9777 and hitting a seven-week low of $0.9632.

For an analysis of the outlook for commodity currencies, see [ID:nLDE6AO1YE]

The dollar index <=USD> <.DXY>, which tracks the greenback's performance against a basket of six major currencies, rose to a two-month high of 80.381.

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