FOREX-Euro falls as euro zone countries seen split

Published 12/06/2010, 04:44 PM
Updated 12/06/2010, 04:48 PM
GC
-

* Euro snaps three-day rally vs dollar on euro zone woes

* FX Concept's Taylor sees euro at parity vs dollar

* Peripheral bond yields rise as euro group seen split (Updates prices, adds quotes, details)

By Wanfeng Zhou

NEW YORK, Dec 6 (Reuters) - The euro fell on Monday and more losses are likely after Germany rebuffed calls for a bigger euro zone financial safety net, raising fears of division over how to stem the region's debt crisis.

The euro had earlier fallen more than 1 percent to near $1.3250 as traders took profits on its recent three-day climb. In the near term, the euro could head back toward its 2-1/2 month low around $1.2970 set last week, traders said.

Yields on Italian, Spanish and Greek bonds and the cost of protecting them against default rose after Germany rejected a call by the International Monetary Fund to increase the size of a 750 billion euro safety net. Germany also dismissed a call for joint euro bonds guaranteed by all governments.

"What Europe has done is not enough. They have to have eurobonds," John Taylor, chairman and chief investment officer of FX Concepts, told Reuters 2011 Investment Outlook Summit. Taylor runs the world's largest currency hedge fund with assets under management of around $8.5 billion.

"You can't lend money to Ireland or Greece. You're just piling on more debt to them, and it's getting harder and harder to repay."

He said Portugal could be the next country to seek a bailout after Ireland, with Spain after that. This will push the euro to parity versus the dollar by next year, he said.

The euro was last down 0.9 percent at $1.3301, coming off a session low of $1.3246 on trading platform EBS. It also fell 0.8 percent to 109.94 yen.

Market talk that fueled the euro's rally late last week was confirmed on Monday when the ECB said it had bought 1.965 billion euros worth of bonds in the week to Dec. 3 compared with 1.348 billion the previous week. That was the biggest weekly total since the end of June and takes the program's overall tally to 69 billion euros.

In the options market, risk reversals showed bearish sentiment on the euro increased again after falling last week, suggesting a recovery in the spot euro above $1.34 may have run its course. The 25-delta 1-month risk reversal rose above 2.0 on Monday after hitting around 1.85 on Friday.

Ireland, which last week became the second country after Greece to require an EU/IMF financial rescue, looks set to pass the toughest budget in the country's history on Tuesday.

BERNANKE AND QE2

With the euro resuming its decline, the dollar index, which tracks the greenback versus a basket of six currencies, was up 0.3 percent at 79.583, close to its 100-day moving average of 80.04.

Federal Chairman Ben Bernanke said on CBS-TV's "60 minutes" Sunday evening that it is possible U.S. monetary policy-makers could increase the $600 billion in asset purchases announced at the last Fed meeting.

Analysts and traders said Bernanke's comments on QE were not too bearish, given Friday's sharply below-forecast jobs growth for November.

Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers in Greenwich, Connecticut, said Bernanke's comments assuaged fears over inflation and helped buoy the dollar.

"Bernanke made clear that he has no interest in letting inflation budge beyond 2 percent and that soothed fears," he said.

FX Concepts' Taylor said the United States is headed for a new recession, and that should boost the U.S. dollar while weighing on commodity prices.

The dollar was flat at 82.63 yen, climbing off Friday's three-week low of 82.52 yen and keeping well above the Ichimoku 'cloud' bottom around 81.70 yen.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management Chairman Jim O'Neill said a retreat of the supercharged Japanese yen may well be the currency story of next year.

"The one currency that could be developing a new trend could be the yen. We could see the end of its strength...it's more than two standard deviations overvalued." (Reporting by Wanfeng Zhou; Additional reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss and Julie Haviv; Editing by Kenneth Barry)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.