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FOREX-Euro extends fall on euro zone contagion fears

Published 11/24/2010, 06:49 AM
Updated 11/24/2010, 06:52 AM

* Euro extends losses, hits two-month low vs dollar

* Focus on debt worries; Korea tensions prompt risk aversion

* Euro shrugs off record German Ifo; dlr index at 2-mth high

(Updates price, adds quote)

By Jessica Mortimer

LONDON, Nov 24 (Reuters) - The euro fell to a two-month low against the dollar on Wednesday, extending losses on uncertainty over Ireland's plans to tackle its debts and fears the crisis could spread to other peripheral euro zone countries.

Peripheral government bond yield spreads over Germany widened and a North Korean statement in the wake of Tuesday's artillery clash that the South's action was driving the peninsula to the brink of war prompted investors to seek safe-haven currencies.

These factors lifted the dollar to a two-month high against a currency basket, while the troubles in the euro zone's periphery meant the euro quickly shrugged off a record high German Ifo business climate index for November.

Uncertainties remained over whether the crisis in Ireland would be resolved, as the teetering government prepared to release a four-year plan to save 15 billion euros as a condition of an EU/IMF bailout. Standard and Poor's cut its sovereign rating on Ireland overnight.

At the same time, worries intensified that the crisis could spread to Portugal or even Spain.

"The Ifo survey was very strong but it did nothing to lift the euro and the trend is clearly bearish into year-end," said Stephan Maier, currency strategist at Unicredit in Milan.

"Ireland will publish a four-year plan, but we don't know what will happen to the government afterwards with new elections expected in January".

The euro was down 0.2 percent at $1.3345, having hit a two-month low of $1.3284 and broken below its 100-day moving average -- currently around $1.3297 -- for the first time since early September. It fell nearly two percent on Tuesday.

The euro may test $1.3232, the 61.8 percent retracement of its August-November rally, before targeting $1.3000.

DOLLAR GAINS

The euro also fell to a two-month low against the yen and lost ground against the Swiss franc, with both currencies benefiting along with the dollar from investors seeking safe haven-assets.

"The euro is very vulnerable due to the Irish crisis and worries about whether Portugal will be next in line. These are not things that will be solved today or tomorrow," said Niels Christensen, currency strategist at Nordea in Copenhagen.

The dollar index rose 0.15 percent to 79.798, having hit a high of 79.995, its strongest in two months.

Analysts said the euro zone worries eclipsed concerns about tensions between North and South Korea, which most believed would not escalate into something more serious.

The fact other perceived higher-risk currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollar rose on the day against the U.S. dollar supported this view.

"The fact that the Australian dollar is still up means this is predominantly a story of euro zone-specific worries weighing on euro crosses," Unicredit's Maier said.

The Australian dollar was up 0.4 percent from late U.S. levels at $0.9765, rebounding from a four-week low of $0.9708.

Tuesday's Federal Reserve minutes showing U.S. policymakers considered more radical steps to boost the economy failed to dent the dollar. (jessica.mortimer@thomsonreuters.com; Tel: +44207 542 7817, RM: jessica.mortimer.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net, editing by Nigel Stephenson))

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