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FOREX-Euro edges to 15-mth high vs dlr, yen slips

Published 04/13/2011, 07:53 AM
Updated 04/13/2011, 07:56 AM
USD/JPY
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* Euro hits 15-month high of $1.4521 on EBS

* Dollar/yen, cross/yen regain some ground after sell-off

* Yen pressured as short-covering and profit-taking fade

(Adds detail, updates prices)

By Jessica Mortimer

LONDON, April 13 (Reuters) - The euro edged to a 15-month high against the dollar while the yen slipped broadly on Wednesday as a bout of global risk reduction abated and investors sought currencies promising higher yield.

The euro was lifted by reported demand from sovereign names looking to recycle dollar proceeds as the single currency remained supported by the prospect of further rate rises in the euro zone while policy stays loose in the United States and Japan.

The European Central Bank's increase of interest rates last week should not be considered as an isolated decision and the ECB president has signalled that it was not a one-off, ECB Governing Council member Luc Coene said on Wednesday. [ID:nLDE73C13A]

"Some positioning indicators are pointing at an aggressive pick-up in euro long positions. What started as a sovereign-driven dollar recycling move seems to be gaining traction," said Valentin Marinov, currency strategist at Citi.

"But we could see a shift if positioning starts to look stretched in the near term and given that a lot of the positives for the euro are already in the price".

Commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars also rose, buoyed by a recovery in commodity prices and stocks, while the yen -- the most popular funding currency to buy higher-yielding assets, the process known as carry trades -- retreated after gaining on Tuesday.

The euro was up 0.1 percent at $1.4506, having earlier hit $1.4521 on EBS trading platform, narrowly surpassing Tuesday's $1.4520 high. Its gains were slowed by persistent option-related offers. Traders said a barrier at $1.4530 was being defended, expiring on Friday. A break above there would target the 2010 highs around $1.4582.

Technical analysts said the uptrend remained intact while the currency is above $1.4250/80 -- the area from which the euro bounced towards its current highs -- while a sustained break above $1.4600 could open up the path for a test of $1.500.

Against the yen, the euro was up 0.7 percent on the day at 121.91 yen , though it stayed well below an 11-month high of 123.33 yen hit on Monday.

"If there is no pullback in oil and other commodity prices then I think going forward the yen will be very vulnerable," said Niels Christensen, currency strategist at Nordea in Copenhagen.

YEN FALLS

The yen's downtrend was seen staying intact as long as risk appetite holds up. The negative impact on the economy of the recent massive earthquake was expected to ensure Japanese monetary policy remains ultra-loose for a prolonged period.

The Japanese government's downgrading of its assessment of the economy for the first time in six months added weight to this view. [ID:nL3E7FD0DS]

The dollar was up 0.5 percent at 84.07 yen after sliding more than 1.2 percent on Tuesday for its biggest one-day percentage drop in four months.

Global equities and commodities recovered on Wednesday from falls the previous day, when an upgrade of the severity of Japan's nuclear crisis turned investors more risk-averse, prompting them to unwind some of their recent yen-funded carry trades.

"This selling-off has provided the opportunity to buy USD/JPY but caution is advised as risk sentiment does remain fragile," said a Tokyo-based trader, adding he saw a range of 83.00-86.00 yen.

The dollar continued to be supported by its 200-day moving average -- currently around 83.46 yen -- having bounced off that level on Tuesday. More support lies at 83.34 yen, the 23.6 percent retracement of the dollar's mid-March to April rally, and 83.30 yen, the dollar's March 11 intraday high.

Short-term resistance lies at 84.33 yen, the conversion line on the daily Ichimoku chart, a form of Japanese technical analysis widely used among market players. Reported option expiries at 83.20, 83.90, 84.00, 84.50 and 85.00 yen also pointed to dollar/yen being trapped in a range.

The Australian dollar was up 0.5 percent at $1.0493 to come closer to its recent 29-year high of $1.0585. It was up more than 1 percent versus the yen at 88.19 yen, regaining ground after a 1.8 percent slide on Tuesday. (Additional reporting by Neal Armstrong, editing by Stephen Nisbet)

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