FOREX-Euro eases on profit-taking; dollar flat vs yen

Published 09/27/2010, 04:19 AM
Updated 09/27/2010, 04:24 AM

* Euro down 0.2 percent at $1.3461 after 5-month high

* Fed easing expectations keep dollar under pressure

* CFTC data shows shift to euro longs

* Euro near-term key tech level around $1.3510

(Releads, adds quotes, changes dateline prvs TOKYO)

By Tamawa Desai

LONDON, Sept 27 (Reuters) - The euro took a breather on Monday after hitting five-month highs against the dollar late last week but losses were limited as the greenback remained under pressure on expectations of more U.S. monetary easing.

The dollar steadied against the yen above 84 yen as selling by Japanese exporters and institutional investors ahead of the fiscal half-year end was offset by wariness of more yen-selling intervention by Japan.

Traders said the euro was facing some profit-taking against the dollar after gaining 6 percent on the dollar this month and hitting its highest since April on Friday at $1.3496 but traders saw potential for further gains. At 0732 GMT, the euro was down 0.2 percent at $1.3461.

The U.S. Federal Reserve last week signalled it could loosen monetary policy further to support a sluggish economy.

"The euro is not being bought on its own merits, and the market will continue to sell dollars into the (Fed's) November meeting on expectations of more easing," said Lee Hardman, currency economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. "That will also continue to support equities and commodity prices."

Latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed currency speculators moved to a net long position in the euro for the first time this year.

"The euro has been surprisingly resilient to renewed sovereign debt concerns and similarly we don't expect softer data to much damage to the currency this week," analysts at Credit Agricole CIB said in a note.

The euro's next key level stood at $1.3510, a 50 percent retracement of its fall from above $1.51 last November to its June low below $1.19. There was also talk of a barrier at $1.3525 with stop-loss buy orders above that level.

The market will watch European Central Bank tenders due to expire this week, with banks preparing to repay 225 billion euros of 12-, six- and three-month funds to the ECB on Thursday.

Some say it may make traders cautious on the euro, while others say a withdrawal of funds from the banking system will boost lending rates and provide support for the single currency.

The dollar index, a measure of its performance against six major currencies, was little changed at 79.35 after dropping to its lowest in almost eight months on Friday at 79.25. It fell through the 61.8 percent retracement of its rally from November to June on Friday, a bearish signal.

WARY TO CHASE YEN

The dollar held steady at 84.14 yen, near Friday's low of 84.12 and more than a yen above the 15-year low of 82.87 hit shortly before Japanese authorities acted nearly two weeks ago to sell yen for the first time in six years.

"Since this is the week when the fiscal half-year comes to an end, I think there will be a decent amount of (dollar) selling," said a senior trader at a major Japanese bank. "But because we are in such a situation, that also means that wariness toward intervention is strong."

He doubted the dollar would fall rapidly even if stop-loss sell orders near 84.00 yen were triggered, adding, "It's scary to sell the downside."

The dollar spiked against the yen on rumours of further yen-selling action on Friday but Prime Minister Naoto Kan said he was unaware of any new market intervention.

Some traders said the dollar came off its initial weakness after Chinese authorities lowered its mid-point on the yuan after nine days of higher yuan fixings.

The Australian dollar hit a two-year high of $0.9623 before last trading at $0.9599, up 0.1 percent.

(Additional reporting by Tokyo forex team)

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