FOREX-Euro eases as Moody's eyes Spain, losses seen limited

Published 12/15/2010, 12:21 PM
Updated 12/15/2010, 12:24 PM

* Euro falls after Moody's says it may cut Spain's rating

* Euro debt worries lift Swiss franc to record vs euro

* Options investors continue to buy dollar calls (Updates prices, adds quote)

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The euro fell on Wednesday after Moody's said it may downgrade Spain's debt rating, but losses may be contained as investors await more developments about how policymakers will resolve the region's fiscal crisis.

Analysts said the Moody's news, while clearly negative for the euro, did not add anything new to the debate on the euro zone's financial woes.

On the other hand, the dollar rose, bolstered by U.S. data showing a steady recovery in the New York state's manufacturing sector. A somewhat soft U.S. consumer price index, while supportive of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing and dollar-negative overall, did not alter the view that the economy is growing modestly.

Investors on Wednesday, however, focused more on contagion risks from the euro zone debt crisis. The Moody's report, saying the ratings agency placed Spain's Aa1 ratings on review for a possible downgrade, was a reminder that fiscal problems in Europe are far from over.

Still, some analysts suggested investors are less likely to sell the euro further given that the market has fairly well priced in most of the bad news from the euro zone.

"Going forward, we certainly think the pressure on the euro will be lower. Sharp declines in the currency would be event-dependent," said Aroop Chatterjee, chief FX quant strategist, at Barclays Capital in New York.

"But the potential for sharp declines is higher than for any meaningful appreciation," Chatterjee said.

The increase in the pace of European Central Bank buying of peripheral bonds did help stabilize the euro recently, but Chatterjee said the additional purchases are not enough.

Overall, the Barclays team expects the euro to fall to $1.28 over the next three months, before recovering.

In midday New York trading, the euro was down 0.6 percent against the dollar at $1.3307, off an earlier low of $1.3285 where traders reported sovereign demand for the euro.

Traders said the euro's intraday bias remained neutral, although a push higher is a possibility as long as the $1.3164 support -- the Dec. 9 low on trading platform EBS -- holds. On the other hand, a break above $1.3496 will cement the case that the fall from $1.4283 -- the November high -- is complete.

The euro edged 0.3 percent lower against the Swiss franc to 1.2802 francs, having hit a record low of 1.2758 on trading platform EBS in the wake of the Moody's news on Spain.

The franc gained as worries about debt problems in some European countries encouraged investors to reduce exposure to riskier euro zone assets and seek safer alternatives.

Contributing to the euro's fall, the dollar firmed after mostly upbeat economic data lifted U.S. bond yields, enhancing the appeal of some dollar-denominated assets.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a seven-month high just above 3.50 percent in Asian trade, helped by above-forecast U.S. retail sales data. In midday trade, 10-year yields edged lower from that high to 3.4 percent.the economy is improving gradually and because it hasn't really surprised in either direction, it ... allows the market to revert back to what it's most comfortable with," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst, at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington. And "that's selling the euro on increasing sovereign credit concerns."

The dollar gained 0.4 percent against a basket of major currencies to 79.693, moving away from a three-week low of 78.819 plumbed on Tuesday.

The dollar also gained 0.4 percent against the Japanese yen to 83.96 yen.

In the options market, traders cited strong buying of U.S. dollar calls -- a bet of further currency appreciation -- against the yen, sterling and euro.

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