🎈 Up Big Today: Find today's biggest gainers with our free screenerTry Stock Screener

FOREX-Euro drops on debt fears, but rate view still reigns

Published 04/15/2011, 02:23 PM
Updated 04/15/2011, 02:28 PM
SCHW
-

* Euro shrugs off higher-than-expected euro zone CPI data

* U.S. core consumer prices contained

* Dollar/yen on pace for worst week in 9 months

(Updates prices, adds quote, changes byline)

By Julie Haviv

NEW YORK, April 15 (Reuters) - The euro succumbed to sovereign debt fears on Friday, but the single-currency should remain range-bound or even rebound against the dollar as loose U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy goes head-to-head with a hawkish European Central Bank.

Peripheral sovereign debt concerns have mostly been outweighed by rate expectations this year, but nevertheless the euro has suffered from setbacks along the way, with Friday no exception after Moody's cut Ireland's rating to just above "junk" status. [ID:nLDE73E0DU]

In early afternoon New York trading, the euro was down 0.4 percent at $1.4436, well below a 15-month high of $1.4521 touched earlier this week. The euro was down about 0.3 percent so far this week.

Traders said market ran stop orders below $1.4430, pushing the euro to session lows at $1.4407 on electronic trading platform EBS.

The options market suggests euro zone debt worries are not at the forefront of investors' minds. Benchmark volatilities implied by one-month at-the-money euro/dollar options was around 9.35 percent on Friday, near a one-year low.

Six-month and one-year implied vols remained elevated though, trading at 11.45 percent and 12.25 percent respectively.

Several top Federal Reserve officials have sounded reassuring about inflation, and data on Friday supported that stance. For Fed comments, click on [ID:nN14167673].

Data showed U.S. core consumer prices for March were contained, suggesting the Fed was still a long way away from tightening monetary policy. [ID:nN15209781] ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ For graphic on core CPI vs. University of Michigan 5-year inflation expectation index: http://r.reuters.com/dyp98r

U.S. inflation: http://r.reuters.com/jap98r ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

To many economists the data affirmed expectations that the Fed would not raise rates until early next year.

The ECB. meanwhile, raised rates to 1.25 percent from 1 percent last week, its first rate hike since July 2008.

Euro zone inflation numbers surprised on the upside, reinforcing views the ECB will continue to raise rates in the coming months. [ID:nBRLFFE7CY]

"A year from now, the ECB may have navigated the exit from accommodative policies, at the point at which the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) will be about to raise rates," said Jens Larsen, chief European economist at RBC Capital Markets in London.

"If the ECB hike does not cause a significant slowing of growth in the euro area, or a sharp deterioration in the periphery, then the pre-emptive strategy may well be judged successful."

Investors are pricing in the chances of two more ECB rate increases before the end of this year .

"The interest rate differential argument has clearly supported the euro the last few weeks," said Greg Salvaggio, senior vice president for capital markets at Tempus Consulting in Washington.

"The ECB has hiked rates and will probably hike again by the end of the summer and now the question is what will the Fed do. Clearly this benign inflation data that we got this morning won't push the Fed quickly to hike rates."

Market players said the euro could find the going tough above $1.45 given concerns about sovereign debt problems, which escalated this week as fears about a possible Greek restructuring intensified. [ID:nLDE73D0XQ]

The U.S. stock market. meanwhile, is reflecting a "risk-on" stance, with the Standard & Poor's <.SPX > 500 stock index up 5 percent this year.

Charles Schwab Corp , the largest U.S. discount brokerage, posted higher-than-forecast earnings. Chairman Charles Schwab said in a statement that clients had reduced their cash holdings at Schwab to levels not seen since before the financial crisis of 2008 and are investing more money in stocks. [nN14177981]

The dollar was down 0.4 percent at 83.12 yen , but losses were limited. The greenback has fallen in six of the last seven sessions and was on track for its worst weekly performance in about nine months with losses this week of 2.1 percent.

(Additional reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss in New York; Editing by Diane Craft)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.