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FOREX-Dollar up as euro pressured by fiscal, ECB jitters

Published 03/30/2009, 12:03 AM
Updated 03/30/2009, 12:08 AM
NWG
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* Dollar pushes higher after euro plunge on Friday

* ECB, G20 in focus this week for steps to boost economies

* Japan industrial output slides 9.4 percent in Feb

By Charlotte Cooper

TOKYO, March 30 (Reuters) - The dollar rose against other major currencies on Monday, as comments about euro zone fiscal responsibility and weaker stock markets undermined recent investor confidence and favoured the safe-haven greenback.

After a bout of improving economic and financial sentiment, which has aided the euro and higher yielders such as the Australian dollar, analysts said caution had crept in ahead of a European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision, important U.S. data and a meeting of G20 nations this week.

The euro posted its biggest one-day fall against the dollar in two months on Friday after Germany's finance minister said it could one day face trouble in terms of stability and credibility if the euro zone's fiscal responsibility pact was not taken seriously.

That coupled with a drop on Wall Street, and a fall in bank shares as bank executives indicated March had been a tougher month than the prior two, to inject caution into markets.

"This rosy improvement that we've been seeing seems to be at least being re-thought for now and that's come to the benefit of the dollar," said Mitul Kotecha, global head of FX strategy at Calyon in Hong Kong.

Asian share markets dropped in the wake of Wall Street's fall as investors took profits on recent gains.

The euro slipped 0.2 percent to $1.3260 after shedding more than 1.5 percent on Friday as weaker-than-expected euro zone industrial orders and German inflation data fanned concerns.

It had climbed above $1.37 earlier in March after the Federal Reserve said it would buy a large amount of longer-dated U.S. government debt to keep interest rates down and pull the world's largest economy out of recession, but has retraced more than half of that move.

The Australian dollar fell 1 percent to $0.6868 and the New Zealand dollar shed 1.3 percent to $0.5642 as lower share markets and commodity prices dented demand.

The ECB holds a rate review on Thursday. As well as expectations that it will cut its main policy rate by half a percentage point to a new record low of 1 percent, the market is keen to see how far it might follow other central banks such as the Fed in taking unconventional steps to shore up the economy.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet attends a European Parliament committee hearing at 1430 GMT on Monday and the market will be listening for clues on its next steps.

"The market will be on high alert for any comments that the ECB may be moving further into the realm of unorthodox monetary policy," said Sue Trinh, a senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Sydney.

G20, JAPAN ECONOMY

Leaders of the Group of 20 developed and developing nations meet on April 2 and the market will be watching to see what measures they will discuss to fight the global economic crisis.

G20 leaders hope support for banks, higher spending and more money for the IMF will lift the world economy out of recession by the end of 2010, according to a draft G20 communique on the Financial Times website on Sunday.

In Japan, industrial output fell 9.4 percent in February from the month before as weak global demand weighed on an economy mired in a deepening recession.

But manufacturers said they expect output to rise by about 3 percent in March and April, suggesting it may bottom out after sharp declines since late last year.

The dollar reversed early gains to ease 0.2 percent to 97.70 yen, after falling nearly 1 percent on Friday. But it remains in sight of this month's four-month high at 99.69 yen.

Japan's fiscal year ends this week and Masafumi Yamamoto, head of FX strategy Japan at Royal Bank of Scotland, said any repatriation flows for year-end book-closing finished last weession. (Editing by Chris Gallagher)

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