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FOREX-Dollar up as China data offers no upside surprise

Published 10/21/2009, 11:59 PM
Updated 10/22/2009, 12:03 AM
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* Dlr claws up from 14-mth low vs euro, basket of currencies

* Aussie dips on profit-taking, China Q3 GDP as expected

By Masayuki Kitano

TOKYO, Oct 22 (Reuters) - The dollar bounced off a 14-month low against a basket of currencies and the Australian dollar eased on Thursday, as investors locked in profits after Chinese economic data offered no major upside surprise. Although China's gross domestic product accelerated to 8.9 percent in the third quarter, the result was in line with market expectations and gave traders an excuse to take profits in higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian dollar.

"I think there were hopes that the numbers might come in stronger, but they turned out to be broadly in line with expectations," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief foreign exchange strategist, Japan at Barclays Capital. But the Chinese data is unlikely to change the prevailing trend of dollar weakness and strength in growth-linked commodity currencies, market players said.

"There have not been any factors to alter the global recovery scenario," said Yamamoto at Barclays Capital, adding that the bank is forecasting that the Australian dollar will rise towards parity against the dollar.

The dollar index, which measures the dollar's value against six major currencies, rose 0.3 percent to 75.230. It hit a 14-month low of 74.940 on Wednesday.

The Australian dollar dipped 0.4 percent to $0.9238, pulling back from a 14-month high of $0.9330 hit on Wednesday, while the New Zealand dollar fell 0.8 percent to $0.7518, down from Wednesday's 15-month high of $0.7635.

China is Australia's biggest trading partner and robust Chinese demand for its commodities has helped the country to dodge a recession.

The euro dipped 0.2 percent to $1.4987, but market players said the euro seemed poised to gain further after its surge to a 14-month high of $1.5047 hit on trading platform EBS the previous day.

"It can't be helped," said Akira Hoshino, chief manager of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ's foreign exchange trading department.

"Crude oil has risen above $80. Emerging market currencies are strong and central banks in those countries will likely intervene and the euro will probably be bought due to their asset re-allocation," Hoshino said.

But whether the euro will rise to its record peak of $1.6040 hit last July is another matter, Hoshino said.

The euro's rise may stall before then, perhaps at $1.53 or $1.55, he said, adding that the euro's strength is likely to have a negative impact on the euro zone's economic fundamentals and could push back the timing of exit policies.

Sterling held steady at $1.6601.

It had rallied on Wednesday after minutes from a Bank of England meeting suggested officials were not ready to expand an emergency asset-buying programme and had "differences of view" on inflation.

Analysts said that brought interest rate differentials back into focus with investors expecting the U.S. Federal Reserve to lag other major central banks in raising rates.

Richard Grace, chief currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said the Fed's Beige book suggested price pressures were very subdued in the United States, reinforcing the case that rates there would remain low.

For more on the "Beige Book", click on.

"U.S. yields are unattractive and clearly deflationary pressures are still there," Grace said. "All this means that the U.S. dollar will continue to head lower."

The dollar managed to claw higher against the low-yielding yen, rising 0.1 percent to 91.04 yen. (Additional reporting by Anirban Nag in Sydney; Editing by Joseph Radford)

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