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FOREX-Dollar turns tail as gold hits record on safe-haven bid

Published 11/23/2009, 02:00 AM
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* Dollar loses early shine to gold, snaps 2-day gains

* Fed officials sound in no hurry to tighten

* Euro broadly firmer as ECB talks tough to banks

By Kevin Yao and Wayne Cole

SINGAPORE/SYDNEY, Nov 23 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar drifted lower against the euro and other major currencies on Monday, losing its shine to a surging gold price and more dovish comments from U.S. central bankers.

Gold rose more than 1 percent to a fresh record high on Monday as concerns about accelerating inflation and weak economic growth prompted investors to seek relatively safer assets, while supply concerns boosted oil and copper.

Sue Trinh, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Sydney, said she expected dollar weakness to continue until U.S. Thanksgiving holiday starting Thursday.

"The market is probably caught long on the dollar following the move on Friday, which was a false break," she said. "Gold is very will bid and commodities are all rallying.

The dollar has been on a steady decline since March as signs of a global recovery prompted investors to favor higher-yield currencies and assets.

It has staged a modest rebound in recent weeks, but analysts generally believe it will lose further ground in the near term due to expectations that U.S. interest rates will remain at record low levels into 2010.

Spot gold was trading around $1,162 an ounce, having hit a peak around $1,164, up a third so far this year.

Against a basket of currencies the dollar <.DXY> dropped 0.5 percent to 75.276. On Friday, the dollar index rose as high as 75.879 -- its second straight daily gain -- as risk tolerance declined, with investors cutting exposure to riskier assets.

The euro hopped to $1.4935, reversing an early slip to $1.4834 and matching Friday's high at $1.4935.

HURT BY FED COMMENT

Traders said the dollar had initially tried to extend last week's short-covering rally but ran into selling from Asian sovereign accounts just as gold streaked to a record high.

It was also hit by comments from St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard that the central bank should keep alive its mortgage-related assets purchase programme beyond a planned end-date to give policy-makers more flexibility.

In addition, the Financial Times had an interview with Chicago Fed President Charles Evans in which he suggested interest rates would not be lifted for a long time to come, maybe late 2010 or even 2011.

Those comments came in contrast to comments on Friday from European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet that banks risked becoming addicted to easy money. Trichet said he would make sure that extraordinary liquidity measures would be phased out in a timely and gradual fashion.

"The Fed is sounding like they mean it about keeping rates low for an extended period -- way into 2010 if not 2011," said a trader at an Australian bank.

"That just added to the dollar's offered tone and it doesn't take a lot of flow to move currencies when the market is so thin," he added, noting the absence of Tokyo for a holiday had made conditions illiquid.

Trade was likely to be thin all week given U.S. markets will be shut on Thursday for Thanksgiving, though the lack of liquidity could lead to volatile moves.

The dollar was little changed on the yen at 88.90 yen , from 88.97 in New York, but remains in a gradual downtrend that stretches back four weeks now. Support was seen under 88.70, with resistance at 89.10 yen.

Sterling edged up to $1.6514 , from $1.6502 on Friday, while the Australian dollar bounced to $0.9180, from $0.9153 .

Minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting are due on Wednesday and could repeat the low rates message.

Analysts at Barclays believe the minutes should show the Fed's reference to resource utilisation and inflation in its policy statement was intended to underline its commitment to keeping rates low.

"This language was not meant to signal that the extended period phrase would soon be removed," they said in a note to clients. "We expect the FOMC's updated economic projections to continue to show moderate economic growth and modest inflation."

Currency bid prices at 0635GMT. All data taken from Reuters with percent change calculated from the daily U.S. close at 2130GMT.

Last US Close %Chg YTD % 2008 Cls ------------------------------------------------------------- Euro/dlr 1.4930 1.4862 +0.46 +2.34 1.4589 Dlr/yen 88.80 88.95 -0.17 -20.24 111.33 Euro/yen 132.62 132.23 +0.29 -18.40 162.53 Dlr/swiss 1.0125 1.0176 -0.50 -10.67 1.1335 Stg/dlr 1.6546 1.6499 +0.28 -16.63 1.9847 Dlr/can 1.0643 1.0711 -0.63 +6.81 0.9964 Aus/dlr 0.9179 0.9140 +0.43 +4.82 0.8757 Euro/swiss 1.5122 1.5129 -0.05 -8.57 1.6539 Euro/stg 0.9023 0.9006 +0.19 +22.78 0.7349 Nzd/dlr 0.7268 0.7233 +0.48 -5.19 0.7666 Dlr/Norw 5.6228 5.6558 -0.58 +3.46 5.4347 Euro/Norw 8.3976 8.4030 -0.06 +5.92 7.9283 Dlr/Swed 6.8915 6.9454 -0.78 +6.64 6.4622 Euro/Swed 10.2946 10.3130 -0.18 +9.16 9.4304 (Editing by Kim Coghill) ((kevin.yao@thomsonreuters.com; +65 6870 3841; Reuters Messaging: kevin.yao.reuters.com@reuters.net )) ((If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to news.feedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com))

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