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FOREX-Dollar tumbles vs euro as risk appetite rises

Published 09/13/2010, 01:14 PM
Updated 09/13/2010, 01:20 PM
EUR/JPY
-

* Dollar having worst day vs euro since mid-July

* China data boosts risk appetite, Aussie gains

* No yen intervention, focus shifts to Japan party race

* Longer-term concerns linger, Swiss franc up vs dollar (Adds details, updates prices, changes byline)

By Nick Olivari

NEW YORK, Sept 13 (Reuters) - The dollar was on track for its biggest one-day slide against the euro in two months on Monday as strong Chinese data boosted currencies of countries like Australia that are big sellers to the world's second largest economy.

Thanks to recent better-than-expected U.S. employment data and new global banking rules, investors began the week in an upbeat mood. New data showing Chinese factories ramped up production last month and money growth beat expectations backed the view that the markets' outlook had grown too gloomy. For details, see [ID:nTOE68A00H]

Investors were also cheered when regulators agreed on new capital requirements for banks on Sunday, with lenders given more time than expected to comply with them. [ID:nLDE68B0BP]

That helped drive the euro above $1.28 -- it fell below $1.26 in late August -- placing it on target for its best daily gain since July 15.

The high-yielding Australian dollar reached a five-month peak of $0.9362 . Australia is a top supplier of raw materials for China.

"There's no doubt that risk appetite has returned, and the strong Chinese data reduces the risk of a global double-dip recession," said Matthew Strauss, senior strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.

The euro jumped 1.5 percent to last trade at $1.2868 . Earlier gains triggered automatic buy orders around $1.2750. It also rose 0.9 percent to 107.62 yen .

The euro got a boost after the European Commission said it expects the euro zone economy to grow almost twice as fast in 2010 as previously expected. [ID:nLDE68C0KA]

Analysts said the euro was targeting $1.2920, a level it failed to breach earlier this month, but cautioned it would remain within its recent range unless it topped that level.

But analysts said longer-term worries remain about U.S. growth and the health of the euro zone banking sector. That pushed the dollar down 1.1 percent to 1.0082 Swiss francs . The franc is a traditional safe-haven currency.

"People are getting short-term encouragement from recent data but still have long-term concerns," said Brian Dolan, chief strategist at Forex in Bedminster, New Jersey.

The dollar index <.DXY>, a non-traded calculation of the dollar's performance against six currencies was at key technical levels. The index was last down 1 percent at 81.895.

The index is currently seeing its biggest down-day since rebounding from August lows and if sustained it increases the odds for extending the index decline toward 81.58/50, potentially re-testing the 80.745 August low over coming weeks, said BNP Paribas in a note to clients.

YEN SLIPS, CHINA IN FOCUS

The dollar fell 0.6 percent to 83.63 yen , still near a 15-year low around 83.34 yen on electronic trading platform EBS . The low recorded by Reuters data is 83.32.

That kept investors on alert to see whether Japanese authorities would intervene to weaken the yen ahead of a ruling party leadership vote on Tuesday.

If challenger Ichiro Ozawa ousts Prime Minister Naoto Kan, analysts expect the dollar to rise against the yen, as Ozawa has advocated strong intervention to curb the yen's strength.

Traders said bids from Japanese importers around 83.50-80 yen were offset by exporter offers reported above 84.20 yen.

Speculators raised bets slightly in favor of the yen last week, according to CFTC data, while three-month risk reversal was at -1.9, according to Reuters data, still with a bias to dollar puts and yen calls. [ID:nN10229952]

Both indicate there is still a bullish bias on the yen.

Were Japan to intervene, it is expected to act alone, with U.S. authorities more focused on persuading China to allow more yuan appreciation.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was due to discuss China's exchange rate practices before Congress this week.

In remarks published in the Wall Street Journal on Monday, he said China has made "very, very little" progress on letting the exchange rate reflect market forces. [ID:nTOE68B01F]

China loosened the yuan's peg against the dollar in June, but the dollar has only fallen about 1 percent since then.

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