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FOREX-Dollar struggles; investors look for Fed statement

Published 12/16/2009, 01:36 PM
Updated 12/16/2009, 01:39 PM
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* Dollar retreats from 2-1/2-month high ahead of Fed

* Euro holds above $1.45 support

* U.S. consumer price data shows modest rise in November

* Markets watching for any mention of Fed policy exit

(Recasts, updates prices)

NEW YORK, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar slipped on Wednesday ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting and after data showing tame inflation last month suggested the U.S. central bank need not rush to lift interest rates from record lows.

That helped the euro bounce off a 2-1/2-month low hit one day ago, with traders buying the currency after it failed to break below $1.45. For more on the U.S. data, see [ID:nLDE5BF1RP].

Most analysts expect the Fed to stick to its pledge to keep interest rates near zero for an "extended period" when it issues a post-meeting statement on Wednesday around 2:15 p.m., (1915 GMT) suggesting no rate hike until well into next year.

A run of strong U.S. data lately raised speculation the Fed could hike rates sooner than expected, a move that would boost the value of dollar-based assets.

"I don't think the Fed will want to say too much that rocks the boat at this time of the year," said Firas Askari, head of FX trading at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. "The recent dollar bounce on strong U.S. data is interesting and perhaps means markets are taking a longer view, but I don't think rates are going to be touched until next summer."

The euro was up 0.1 percent at $1.4551 after sliding to around $1.4512 earlier. The euro fell to its weakest since early October on Tuesday.

Concern about some parts of the euro zone banking sector and sovereign credit-worthiness this week may have overshot, aiding the euro's rebound back toward $1.46, said Michael Hart, strategist at Citigroup in London.

An illustration was the muted market reaction to Standard & Poor's cutting Greece's credit ratings by one notch on Wednesday, saying a further downgrade is possible if the government fails to gain political support for a fiscal consolidation program. [ID:nWNA0333]

The euro's failure to test key support around $1.4480 prompted Citigroup strategists to take profits on short euro trades, the bank said in a research note. It added that higher gold and oil prices should spark short-term dollar weakness.

The euro showed limited reaction to the European Central Bank's final one-year liquidity operation at which banks borrowed 97 billion euros.

AUSSIE DOWN, STERLING RALLIES

The dollar index, a non-traded calculation of the dollar's performance against a basket of six currencies, was down 0.2 percent at 76.811 <.DXY>, slipping from the 2 1/2-month high the previous day. Against the yen, it was last up 0.1 percent at 89.73 yen , pulling away from the day's low around 89.40 yen.

The dollar has lost more than 5 percent against the basket of currencies this year on the view that other central banks will raise rates before the Fed does.

The Australian dollar fell 0.8 percent at $0.8992 after Australia's gross domestic product grew by 0.2 percent in the third quarter, less than forecast, while dovish central bank remarks prompted investors to trim expectations for tightening next year. [ID:nSGE5BE06K]

Australia lifted its cash rate 75 basis points in just 3 months but investors are now anticipating a pause at the February RBA meeting which some analysts suggest may even signal an end to the current tightening cycle.

Sterling rallied after a surprisingly strong UK employment report suggested the British economy was on the mend. The pound was up 0.4 percent at $1.6345 and the euro fell through key 100-day moving average technical support at 89.25 pence to trade at 88.96 pence .

Norway's crown hit a three-week high against the euro and rose sharply against the dollar after the Norges Bank lifted interest rates for the second time in three months. [ID:nOSL011988].

The Fed, meanwhile, "is likely to tweak the statement to note that conditions in financial markets have improved modestly since the last meeting," Barclays analysts said in a note. "But the broader message should remain that the Fed does not expect to change its policy stance soon." (Reporting by Jamie McGeever and Naomi Tajitsu in London and Nick Olivari and Steven C Johnson in New York; Editing by Kenneth Barry)

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