FOREX-Dollar steady on euro but loses ground vs yen

Published 10/12/2010, 12:36 AM
Updated 10/12/2010, 12:40 AM

* Dollar slips vs yen, support at Y81.80

* But euro slips vs dollar, support at $1.3795-3805

* Yen gains ground on crosses

By Charlotte Cooper

TOKYO, Oct 12 (Reuters) - The dollar held its ground on the euro on Tuesday after a short-covering bounce, as the scope for building more short positions on QE expectations became limited, but lost some of its recent gains on the yen.

The euro has struggled to clear $1.40 in the past three sessions, after hitting an eight-month high of $1.4030 last week, and traders said automatic sell orders were starting to build down at $1.3830-35. The euro eased to $1.3870.

The speculative part of the market has become short dollars as it has factored in quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve in November. Market players say this means people will now be cautious about selling it aggressively from here and it could bounce if U.S. policymakers sound less dovish than expected.

But for dollar/yen the going was heavy, with short-covering there running out of steam. It drooped 0.2 percent to 81.93 yen, finding some support from Japanese importers.

Still, wariness about intervention by Japan and the extent of short positioning stopped it falling too far. Support was expected at 81.80 and then 81.30.

"Investors, or market participants, are gradually finding it more difficult to make extra short positions in the U.S. dollar," said Yunosuke Ikeda, senior currency strategist at Nomura Securities.

"So if you see any kind of positive data or less pessimistic data, or less dovish statements from Fed officials then there is a potential for reversal of the dollar value trajectory."

Minutes from the Fed's meeting on Sept. 21, when it said it stood ready to provide more support for the economy and expressed concern about low inflation, are due at 1800 GMT and will be scrutinised for more clues on policymakers' thinking.

The dollar dipped briefly on Monday to 81.37, a 15-year low. Traders say ultimately a test of 80 yen and the record trough of 79.75 yen is likely, but some saw scope short-term for a move up to 83.00 yen. Resistance was expected at 82.55-60 and then up at a former low, 82.87.

One trader at a Japanese bank said the dollar may now trade between 81.50 and 83.00 ahead of a meeting of G20 finance chiefs in South Korea later in October, when last weekend's discussions on currency policy are likely to be continued.

The market remains wary about where Japanese authorities might once again intervene, after Tokyo escaped overt criticism from its G7 and G20 counterparts at the weekend for its yen-selling intervention in September.

Japan intervened last month for the first time in six years and Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said after the G7 meeting he gained understanding there that the action was aimed at countering excessive currency moves and not a prolonged, massive intervention aimed at driving down the yen to a certain level.

"The last line of defence might be 80, which is politically important because if the dollar/yen breaks that level it will reach the highest value of the yen against the dollar in history," Ikeda said.

"But ... this level of 82 is still intervention territory for the Japanese government."

The euro slipped 0.1 percent to $1.3870, well below an eight month high of $1.4030 hit last week. If it triggered stops down at $1.3830-35, then support was expected at $1.3795-1.3805, a cluster of previous highs and lows.

It lost ground against the yen, slipping 0.3 percent to 113.60 yen, while the Australian dollar fell 0.7 percent to 80.13 yen and shed 0.5 percent to $0.9783.

The dollar rose 0.1 percent against a basket of currencies to 77.507, not far from a nine-month low of 76.906 hit last week. (Additional reporting by Chikafumi Hodo and Masayuki Kitano, contribution by Reuters FX analyst Krishna Kumar in Sydney; Editing by Joseph Radford)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.