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FOREX-Dollar steady in wait for Fed, Aussie falls

Published 12/15/2009, 11:35 PM
Updated 12/15/2009, 11:39 PM

* FOMC meeting in focus for tightening hints, due 1915 GMT

* Dollar holds gains across board after stronger inflation

* Aussie falls as GDP, RBA hit tightening expectations

By Charlotte Cooper

TOKYO, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The dollar held near a 2-½ month high on the euro on Wednesday as investors waited to see if the Federal Reserve would offer hints on when tightening might start, while the Australian dollar fell as expectations of aggressive hikes faltered.

Australia's gross domestic product grew by just 0.2 percent in the third quarter, less than forecast, while surprisingly dovish remarks by the central bank sent bill futures up and the Aussie dollar down as investors reined back expectations for tightening next year.

"Weaker-than-expected growth data as well as comments from a top central banker have curbed bullish views towards the Australian dollar a little," said Tsutomu Soma, a senior manager in the foreign securities department at Okasan Securities.

"Players, including Japanese institutional and individual investors, sold the Aussie to trim long positions in Australian assets."

The Australian dollar fell 0.7 percent on the day to $0.8991, hitting its weakest level for three weeks, although talk of options barriers near $0.9000 kept it supported there for a bit.

Against the yen it fell 0.9 percent to 80.52 yen, showing bigger losses on the day than other yen crosses including fellow higher yielder the New Zealand dollar, which has also been a favoured buy against the low-yielding yen and dollar this year.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases its rate decision at 1915 GMT, and while no change in rates is expected the language of the statement will be scrutinised after improving economic data that has raised speculation that U.S. tightening may come sooner than previously expected.

The Fed has said rates are likely to remain very low for an extended period and any hints to the contrary would increase the dollar's appeal by raising the return on dollar-denominated assets.

Analysts say, however, that while the FOMC meeting may show Fed officials are becoming more upbeat about the economy they are unlikely to overturn that commitment to keep rates low.

"There could be more constructive language on the business outlook in the last FOMC meeting (of the year) but we don't think they will ease off of the lower-for-longer stance," UBS analysts wrote in a research note.

November consumer price inflation at 1330 GMT will also be watched, after a surprising jump in November producer prices, with forecasts for a rise of 0.4 percent after a 0.3 percent increase in October.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, in a response to a lawmaker's questions made public on Tuesday, said the economy was operating so far beneath its potential that inflation was unlikely to become a problem.

"The Fed have a benign outlook for inflation and are still seeing slack in the economy," said Greg Gibbs, a currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland in Sydney.

"If the CPI comes in above expectations it could heighten the tension a bit on what the Fed are doing going forward.

The euro held steady at $1.4530, after dropping nearly 1 percent the previous day and hitting $1.4503, its lowest since early October.

Traders cited talk of options barriers around $1.4500, with the risk that players still long on the euro after its recent slide would want to unwind those positions before the year-end.

The single currency fell on Tuesday on euro zone bank concerns and data suggesting growth in the region remained weak, and the market will be watching a raft of euro zone manufacturing purchasing managers' surveys due later on Wednesday.

"The relative growth numbers between Europe and the U.S. are having a bit more impact on the market these days with the idea that perhaps Europe is facing more headwinds," Gibbs said.

The dollar, which rose more than 1 percent against the yen the day before, eased slightly to 89.52 yen but retained most of the previous session's gains.

The dollar index, a measure of its performance against six major currencies, was holding just below Tuesday's two-month high at 77.092. (Additional reporting by Rika Otsuka in Tokyo; Editing by Michael Watson)

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