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FOREX-Dollar steady, caution prevails before US data

Published 10/01/2009, 11:17 PM
Updated 10/01/2009, 11:21 PM

* USD holds firm as investors wary of high-yielders

* Yen broadly up, falling Tokyo shares seen as factor

* Focus now on U.S. Sept non-farm payrolls

* Euro subdued after sell-off, gains seen capped at $1.4550

By Satomi Noguchi

TOKYO, Oct 2 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar held firm against most other major currencies on Friday after investors cut short positions and booked profits in higher-yielding currencies ahead of a U.S. payrolls report for September due later in the day.

The yen rose broadly as Tokyo's benchmark share average fell further below the key 10,000 mark, prompting some traders to think Japanese retail investors may become hesitant to take risks and invest overseas.

The euro fell to near a three-month low against the yen and extended its falls against the greenback after a sell-off during U.S. trade.

"The market seems to be preparing before the release of the U.S. jobs data as well as company earnings reports expected later in the month," said Kosuke Hanao, head of Treasury products sales for HSBC in Tokyo.

The median forecast is for a drop of 180,000 in U.S. payrolls, slowing from 216,000 that were shed in August, though one major U.S. investment bank caused a stir by revising its forecast to show a much bigger drop..

Earlier this week, the ADP report for private sector employment did not bode well for the jobs report, so investors will be wary of going long on riskier assets and high-yielding currencies.

In fact, traders say any bounce in the euro or the higher-yielding Australian dollar could encourage squaring-up of long positions.

The U.S. dollar often gains when investors appear uncertain about the likely pace of the economic rebound and long positions in riskier assets like stocks and higher-yielding currencies get unwound.

The euro dropped 0.1 percent to $1.4529. It fell as low as $1.4502 earlier, a three-week low, extending the previous day's slide made when the European Union's Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said the Group of Seven meeting this weekend would discuss the single currency's recent gains.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet has lent support to that view, saying excess foreign exchange moves had an adverse impact. On Monday, he backed the argument for a strong U.S. currency.

Finance officials worldwide had expressed their discomfort with their respective currencies' strength against the dollar, which tumbled more than 6 percent against a currency basket in the third quarter.

The dollar index, a gauge for the greenback's performance against six other major currencies, held the previous day's gains above the 77 mark to trade at 77.179, flat on the day.

"The dollar index did manage to retake 77, and one has to presume that the short-term risks are to the upside, even though the medium-term risks are to further U.S. dollar weakness," said David Watt, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Thursday the dollar would weaken it if loses its status as the international reserve currency. He added that he doesn't see this as a near-term risk, so long as the United States takes steps to manage its fiscal problems.

Another dollar-positive comment came from U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, saying that a strong dollar was very important to the U.S.

Against the yen, the U.S. dollar dipped 0.2 percent to 89.44 yen, within sight of an eight-month low of 88.23 yen struck on EBS on Monday.

The euro fell as low as 129.65 yen, a lowest since mid-July, before recovering to 130.05 yen, down 0.2 percent.

The Australian dollar was off 14-month peaks at $0.8706, having lost ground after disappointing U.S. data prompted a round of profit-taking on risk trades.

Investors chose to focus on the lower-than-expected manufacturing number from the Institute for Supply Management and a rise in weekly jobless claims. Those numbers managed to overshadow a sharp 1.3 percent jump in personal spending.

RBC's Watt added the ISM manufacturing index, which came in below consensus at 52.9, played to the theme that, absent aggressive stimulus, "the formerly red-hot recovery is going stone cold." (Additional reporting by Anirban Nag in Sydney; Editing by Hugh Lawson)

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