FOREX-Dollar slips on Fed view; euro fails to hold $1.40

Published 10/13/2010, 10:00 AM
Updated 10/13/2010, 10:04 AM

* Euro hits $1.40 after Tues's Fed minutes, Weber comments

* Break above $1.4025-45 in euro/dollar signals more gains

* Dollar slides to record low versus Swiss franc (Adds quote, updates prices, changes byline, changes dateline, previous LONDON)

By Wanfeng Zhou

NEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar fell against most currencies on Wednesday after minutes from a Federal Reserve meeting released the previous day reinforced expectations of more monetary easing in the United States.

Dollar losses were limited, however, after the euro failed again to hold above the key psychological $1.40 mark. The dollar's recovery accelerated after automatic buy orders were triggered, traders said.

Minutes of the Fed's Sept. 21 meeting showed officials thought the struggling U.S. recovery might soon need more help and they discussed ways to provide it, including adopting a price-level target and buying longer-term U.S. government debt. See [ID:nN12188145]

But many analysts say much of the impact from any additional Fed easing has been priced in, with the marketalready very short of dollars.

"For investors to sell the U.S. dollar even further and push (euro/dollar) above $1.40, we need to see additional negative U.S. dollar development, which is currently absent," said Matthew Strauss, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.

In early New York trading, the dollar index, which measures its against a basket of six currencies, slipped 0.2 percent to 77.201 <.DXY>, not far from a nine-month low of 76.906 set last week.

The euro was up 0.1 percent to $1.3936 . It had earlier risen as high as $1.4002 on trading platform EBS, not far from its eight-month high of $1.4030 hit last week, boosted by steady buying by Asian central banks.

Dealers said hawkish comments on Tuesday from European Central Bank Governing Council member Axel Weber highlighted the difference in direction between Fed and ECB policy, giving the euro an added lift. [ID:nN12121001]

"In the G4 space, the ECB is the only central bank that is talking of an exit policy and that is helping the euro," said Ankita Dudani, G-10 currency strategist at RBS.

A firm break above $1.4025-45 in euro/dollar, particularly a weekly close above $1.4030, was seen heralding further gains.

"The market wants to sell the dollar, but there is inevitably nervousness ahead of key levels," said Neil Mellor, currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon.

In addition to $1.40 in euro/dollar, he cited $1.60 in sterling and $0.99 in the Australian dollar versus the U.S. dollar.

The dollar also eased to a record low of 0.9546 Swiss francs , according to Reuters data, while the Australian dollar was at $0.9883, near last week's high of US$0.9918, the strongest level since the currency was floated.

FED QE PRICED IN?

The market has gone very short of dollars on QE expectations recently and some analysts say this raises the risk of a rebound, particularly if the Fed opts for a much smaller QE programme than the $1 trillion in asset purchases some forecast. [FED/R]

"The move is already priced in. If anything we will see the dollar strengthening, especially if they come out with a conservative plan to feed the QE gradually," said Chris Huddleston, head of money markets at Investec Treasury Solutions.


Currency tensions map: http://r.reuters.com/jec96p

PDF report on currencies: http://r.reuters.com/gez77p

Graphic on futures positioning http://r.reuters.com/kus26k


The dollar was steady against the yen at 81.78 yen , supported by nervousness that Japanese authorities could intervene the closer it gets to its record low of 79.75 yen. The dollar hit a 15-year low of 81.37 yen on EBS on Monday. (Additional reporting by Anirban Nag in London; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

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