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FOREX-Dollar slips as Fed seen keeping rates low

Published 11/18/2009, 12:09 PM
Updated 11/18/2009, 12:15 PM

* U.S. dollar retreats after biggest rally in 3 weeks

* BoE minutes seen as relatively dovish; sterling hit

* U.S. CPI up 0.3 percent, but core inflation tame (Updates prices to midday, adds background on Fed and comment from St. Louis Fed's Bullard)

By Steven C. Johnson

NEW YORK, Nov 18 (Reuters) - The dollar fell against the euro on Wednesday as dealers took profits on the currency's biggest rise in three weeks, with fresh data doing little to alter the view that U.S. interest rates will remain at record lows well into 2010.

Reports showing slightly higher-than-expected U.S. inflation and a slide in new home construction helped keep euro gains below $1.50.

But most dealers say the dollar's longer-term declining trend is intact. They noted that although the Federal Reserve may be in the early stages of withdrawing its huge stimulus measures, it is still nowhere near raising interest rates from record lows.

On Tuesday, the Fed said it would pare back a discount window borrowing facility. And St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Wednesday that officials will probably adjust asset-purchase programs before they resort to hiking interest rates.

"That throws cold water on any lingering thoughts of rate hikes," said Jacob Oubina, strategist at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey. This also offsets comments this week from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who triggered a dollar rally when he said the central bank was attentive to the dollar's value.

The euro rose 0.7 percent to $1.4973 while against the yen, the dollar edged up 0.1 percent to 89.35 yen.

Bernanke's rare dollar comments, which were echoed by other Fed officials and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, had pushed the euro down toward $1.48 on Tuesday.

Earlier reports showing a slight gain in the overall U.S. Consumer Price Index and a slide in housing starts undercut some foreign currency gains against the dollar on the view that a sluggish U.S. economy could undermine global recovery.

But that wasn't enough to change the Fed's outlook.

"We're not worried so much about inflation," said Amelia Bourdeau, senior strategist at UBS in Stamford, Connecticut. "Overall, it's still benign because the year-over-year figure was still negative."

Sterling slipped 0.4 percent to $1.6755 while the euro was up 1 percent at 89.38 pence.

The minutes of the Bank of England's Nov. 4-5 meeting showed a three-way split, with seven of its nine members voting to expand the bank's quantitative easing program by 25 billion pounds to 200 billion pounds.

Perhaps the biggest surprise was discussion on potentially cutting the rate of remuneration the BoE pays on bank reserves. This could ease policy by encouraging banks to lend more.

"Any hope for an MPC-related boost to sterling is gone," said Daragh Maher, deputy head of FX strategy at Calyon in London, referring to the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee.

U.S. President Barack Obama wrapped up a visit to China on Wednesday, although few traders expect any near-term changes in Beijing's foreign-exchange policy. (Additional reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss in New York and Jamie McGeever in London; Editing by Jan Paschal )

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