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FOREX-Dollar slips as data, G7 disappoint; Aussie gains

Published 10/04/2009, 09:47 PM

* Dollar slips vs basket of currencies

* Payrolls reinforce US rates low for a while

* G7 ministers stick with previous statement on FX

* Aussie gains as local media see chance of Tuesday rate hike

By Charlotte Cooper

TOKYO, Oct 5 (Reuters) - The dollar fell on Monday, losing ground against a basket of currencies as the outlook for low U.S. rates was reinforced by weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data and after a G7 ministers meeting at the weekend brought no surprises.

The Australian dollar gained ahead of a meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday after two influential columnists wrote that there was a real chance of an interest rate rise this week, sooner than many have been expecting.

The Group of Seven finance ministers and central bankers, who met in Istanbul, broke no new ground on currencies, urging China to strengthen the yuan to help correct global imbalances and saying too much FX volatility tended to threaten economic stability.

Analysts said it potentially left the dollar open to further weakness.

"It was the usual mantra about FX volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates which we've seen time and time again," said Mitul Kotecha, global head of FX strategy at Calyon in Hong Kong.

The dollar index, a measure of its performance against six major currencies, fell 0.3 percent, while the euro climbed to $1.4634 after ending at around $1.4575 on Friday.

The yen lost ground on the crosses after driving the euro and the Australian dollar to their lowest in more than two months on Friday.

The euro climbed to 131.51 yen, from around 130.90 yen, and the Australian dollar rebounded more than 1 percent to 78.48 yen from 77.40 in late U.S. trade.

Australian markets have been pricing in only a low probability of a rate increase this week, with many expecting the central bank would be more likely to raise the cash rate from 3.0 percent in November.

But two Australian media columnists said a move to 3.25 percent was now likely at Tuesday's meeting.

"We don't see the urgency for a move and still think they'll wait, but it sounds like it could be a close call," said Annette Beacher, senior strategist at TD Securities in Singapore.

The Australian dollar fell sharply on Friday but recovered much of its losses to trade at $0.8740 on Monday, although still below a high of nearly 14 months at $0.8860 set last week.

Against the yen, the dollar held steady on the day at 89.85 yen with the market undecided whether to push it back down towards a recent eight-month low of 88.23 yen.

"The market is quite neutral," said one senior trader at a Japanese bank in Tokyo.

"Although the main scenario of dollar/yen is to the down side, people don't have a reason to actually buy yen - there's not a specific story or strategy which will work for yen longs."

Eyes have been on on Japan's new government to see if it would react to the yen's recent climb.

Speaking at the G7 meeting, Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii said Japan would take action if currency moves became excessively one-sided but declined to say if recent moves fell into that bracket.

The trader said he did not expect yen selling intervention unless the dollar fell to 80 yen or below. Japan has not intervened to sell yen since 2004 and analysts and traders say any such action this time, if it were to happen, would also depend on the speed of yen appreciation. (Additional reporting by Wayne Cole in Sydney; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)

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