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FOREX-Dollar slides as G20 looms, euro at 1-year high

Published 09/22/2009, 05:37 AM
Updated 09/22/2009, 05:39 AM
CSGN
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* Dollar sags under weight of global imbalances pre-G20

* Euro at 1-year high at $1.4799

* Market sentiment firmly to sell dollars on any rally

(Updates prices, adds quotes and comment)

By Jamie McGeever

LONDON, Sept 22 (Reuters) - The euro hit a one-year high against a sliding dollar on Tuesday as dealers took advantage of the U.S. currency's rise the previous day to resume selling ahead of a Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting and Group of 20 summit later in the week.

Market sentiment toward the dollar remained bearish. Analysts expect the Fed to signal its ultra-loose monetary policy will remain in place well into next year and the G20 to discuss rebalancing the global economy, a process which will almost certainly require a weaker dollar.

A document obtained by Reuters showed how Washington would urge G20 leaders this week to launch a new push this year to get debtor nations like the United States to save more and exporters like China, Germany and Japan to spend more.

Options-related demand and strong buying from Asian accounts pushed the euro up toward $1.48 as a dearth of major economic data or events on Tuesday left technicals, positioning and pre-placed orders being triggered to lead the the way.

"There's a lot of event risk (tomorrow) so I suspect this is a short-term move ... and that will probably continue for today," said Paul Mackel, senior strategist at HSBC in London.

The Fed and Norwegian central bank announce policy decisions on Wednesday, the Bank of England publishes the minutes of its last policy meeting, and closely-watched purchasing managers data will be released.

"But having said that, the dollar is consistently under pressure. Many people are questioning the longer-term outlook for the dollar and are looking for opportunities to scale into dollar short positions," Mackel said.

At 0905 GMT the euro was up 0.8 percent on the day at $1.4798, a fresh one-year high.

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was down 0.9 percent at 76.12, approaching the one-year low of 76.01 struck on Sept 17.

The index has shed more than 2 percent this month as speculators dumped the dollar in favour of higher-yielding currencies and assets amid rising confidence in a global recovery and expectations rates will stay at rock-bottom levels.

The dollar fell 0.7 percent against the yen to 91.35 yen on Tuesday and was down 0.8 percent against the Swiss franc at a 14-month low of 1.0235 francs.

DOLLAR IN FOCUS AT G20?

European Central Bank Governing Council member Axel Weber said recent moves in currency markets were "not out of line" given the euro zone's economic performance relative to other areas.

Some said this suggested the ECB was comfortable with the euro where it is and a green light to push it even higher, especially in light of the U.S. proposals to put fixing global imbalances on the G20 agenda in Pittsburgh this week.

"Overall the trend for the dollar is still down," said Marcus Hettinger, global FX strategist at Credit Suisse in Zurich, predicting the euro at $1.50 by the end of the year.

But the risk is that the bearishness engulfs the market, and the selling turns into a rout.

"These ideas that the U.S. and Europe can come up with a deal to resolve imbalances is a pipe dream and unworkable," said Maurice Pomery, managing director at Strategic Alpha in London, adding that protectionism from emerging nations in the form of currency intervention was more likely.

"A discussion at the G20 on currencies, and especially the dollar, is not only appropriate but essential, as this move could accelerate swiftly," he said.

The biggest mover among G10 currencies on Tuesday was the New Zealand dollar, which surged more than 2 percent to a 13-month high against the dollar of $0.7230.

Dairy exporter Fonterra raised its estimated payout to farmer shareholders, pointing to stronger global demand and a recovery in dairy prices. Fonterra accounts for around 7 percent of the New Zealand economy.

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