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FOREX-Dollar remains supported after payrolls, Fed awaited

Published 08/10/2009, 07:42 AM
Updated 08/10/2009, 07:45 AM
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* Dollar holds most gains vs euro, currency basket

* Greenback supported after strong payrolls

* But analysts see consolidation ahead of Fed meeting

(Adds comment, details, updates prices)

By Kirsten Donovan

LONDON, Aug 10 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped against the euro and a basket of currencies on Monday on modest profit-taking but held much of its gains following a broad rally late last week on surprisingly strong U.S. jobs figures.

Despite slipping a touch against the yen, the U.S. currency remained supported by data showing a smaller-than-expected fall in U.S. payrolls, which suggested employment may be turning the corner after months of extreme weakness.

Investors were waiting to see if the dollar's latest move was a sign of a breakdown of the recent correlation between the U.S. currency and risk demand -- in which economic data suggesting an improving global economy would batter a dollar trading off the ensuing pick-up in risk appetite.

"It could be a decisive moment for the dollar," said Nordea strategist Niels Christensen.

"The focus could be shifting from risk appetite to interest rate expectations, interest rate differentials, which is an important long-term factor for all currencies."

He added that investors were waiting for more economic numbers that would support the current optimistic mood as well as U.S. rate hike expectations that are priced into the market.

By 1121 GMT, the euro was 0.1 percent higher at $1.4200, but not far off a one-week low around $1.4154 hit on electronic trading platform EBS in the aftermath Friday's data.

The euro brushed off a surprisingly strong reading of euro zone sentiment on Monday. The Sentix index produced a -17 reading for August, improving from -31.30 last month.

The pair traded well off the year's high of $1.4448 hit earlier last week, with a 0.5 percent fall in European shares on Monday helping to limit gains in the euro.

Against a currency basket, the dollar was 0.2 percent lower at 78.847.

ING strategist Tom Levinson in a research note said that a return to the 81.0-85.0 area for the dollar index served as a "first tentative target" to mark the start of more fundamental based trading for the greenback.

The dollar inched down 0.4 percent against the yen to 97.21 yen, after rallying as high as 97.79 yen, its strongest in nearly eight weeks, on Friday.

Dollar selling by Japanese exporters in the Tokyo session weighed on early dollar/yen trade, market participants said.

Some analysts said a post-payrolls rise in Treasury yields helped to support the dollar as it increased the appeal of U.S. debt for some investors, including those from overseas.

FED AWAITED

Analysts said that whether the dollar extends its latest gains may hinge on the actions of the Federal Reserve, which ends a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday.

The central bank is seen holding the fed funds rate at 0-0.25 percent, and some say it may try to discourage speculation of a near-term rate rise, after the payrolls boosted expectations of possible monetary tightening.

Markets are currently fully pricing a 25 basis point rate hike by the end of January.

Barclays Capital said the proximity of the payrolls and the Fed meeting may explain the dollar's broad jump.

"Our US economists expect no increase in asset purchases and a more upbeat tone on the economy," they said in a note.

"In our view this would likely be a USD positive and may herald a period where positive news for U.S. yields continues to be a USD positive."

The Bank of Japan will announce its rate decision on Tuesday, while Norway's central bank will end a policy meeting on Wednesday. (Editing by Victoria Main)

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