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FOREX-Dollar recovers from 14-yr low vs yen

Published 11/26/2009, 04:04 AM
Updated 11/26/2009, 04:06 AM

* Dollar hits 14-year low below 86.30 yen, then rebounds

* Japan's vice finmin: not considering intervention now

* SNB declines comment on Swiss franc intervention rumours

(Recasts, updates prices, adds quotes and comment, changes byline and dateline. Previous: TOKYO)

By Jamie McGeever

LONDON, Nov 26 (Reuters) - The dollar rebounded from a 14-year low against the yen on Thursday as traders betting against the U.S. currency cashed in on its recent slide, but the prospect of persistent loose U.S. monetary policy ensured overall sentiment remained bearish.

A fall of 1.7 percent in European stocks and U.S. futures pointing to a lower open on Wall Street also encouraged traders to pare back positions that involve selling dollars for other currencies and assets like equities and commodities.

Some analysts also said Dubai's shock move on Wednesday to restructure its biggest corporate debtor, Dubai World, and delay repayment on some of the company's $59 billion of liabilities, could be weighing on risk appetite to the dollar's benefit.

But the dollar's recovery may be temporary. Japan's deputy finance minister Yoshihiko Noda told Reuters recent currency moves reflected dollar weakness and Japan wasn't considering intervening now.

The Swiss National Bank on Thursday declined to comment on market talk that it had intervened in the foreign exchanges to sell the Swiss franc, which had surged to its strongest level against the dollar since April last year.

The faster the dollar's fall, the more traders are aware of the threat of intervention from authorities like the SNB or Japan's Ministry of Finance. But the signals from these bodies -- and, more crucially, from U.S. policymakers -- suggests intervention isn't imminent, so the dollar could go even lower.

"The dollar may be exposed to potential intervention, but so far there has only been limited comments against its weakness," said Roberto Maliach, strategist at Unicredit in Milan.

"It's a sort of 'dead cat bounce' in a sense," he said of the dollar's recovery. "We had a sharp drop yesterday and people are taking profits. But the euro remains above the previous high of $1.5060," Maliach noted.

At 0845 GMT the dollar index, a barometer of its performance against six major currencies, was up nearly half a percent on the day at 74.59, bouncing back from a 15-month low of 74.17 earlier in the day.

The greenback was down half a percent against the yen at 86.85 yen, grinding back up from a low of 86.29 yen on trading platform EBS, its weakest level since 1995. Traders say 85 yen is now in the market's sights.

INTERVENTION THREAT

Traders have been doubting Japanese authorities, once known for their heavy dollar-buying interventions, would step in at this stage to break the fall because the dollar's drop was against a range of currencies, and the yen's trade-weighted gains have not been so sharp. For graphic, click on:

http://r.reuters.com/dys63g

But Japan has stayed away from intervention for more than six years, and officials have repeatedly expressed a reluctance to do so.

Many officials around the world have expressed consternation and worry about the dollar's woes, and U.S. officials have tried but failed to reassure investors they believe in a stronger currency.

The catalyst for the dollar's latest slide was the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes on Tuesday saying that the U.S. currency's fall has been orderly and interest rates will stay low for some time.

The euro, meanwhile, was down half a percent on the day at $1.5065, after rising more than 1 percent on Wednesday to a 15-month high of $1.5145 on EBS.

The dollar was up 0.5 percent against the Swiss franc at 1.0005 francs, having earlier tumbled to just above 0.9900 francs on EBS, its lowest since April 2008.

"While intervention is always a threat, necessary conditions of being counter to fundamentals and/or volatile would need to be met to justify action," SocGen FX startegists said in a note on Thursday.

"Also, though the broader G20 is now taking over the G7 lead, unilateral intervention by one of the G4 would raise howls of protectionism which makes its eventuality at current levels and circumstance unlikely," they said.

((Reporting by Jamie McGeever; editing by Toby Chopra; Reuters Messaging: jamie.mcgeever.reuters.com@reuters.net; +44 207 542 8510))

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