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FOREX-Dollar recovers, supported by low risk appetite

Published 06/29/2009, 06:06 AM
Updated 06/29/2009, 06:18 AM
SEBF
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* Dollar recovers, mixed stocks keep risk demand low

* China comments on currency reserves support U.S. currency

* Markets await U.S. payrolls due later in the week (Adds comment, details, updates throughout)

By Naomi Tajitsu

LONDON, June 29 (Reuters) - The dollar inched up on Monday, recovering some losses suffered last week, as mixed global shares kept intact safe-haven demand for the U.S. currency.

European trade was subdued, as traders awaited U.S. payrolls data due on Thursday to see if the dismal employment situation has stabilised. Policy statements by the European Central Bank and Sweden's Riksbank are also scheduled on Thursday.

"With the payrolls coming up, and the ECB and Riksbank, I don't think there's a great appetite to take on big risk this week," said Maurice Pomery, managing director of Strategic Alpha in London.

The euro failed to receive a lift from better-than-expected euro zone economic sentiment data, while some analysts said that the dollar was also supported after China suggested it was in no hurry to change the currency weighting of its foreign reserves.

Analysts said the dollar may also be supported on expectations that the data may show that the dismal jobs picture could finally be stabilising. According to a Reuters poll, forecasts are for a reading of -363,000 in June, compared with -345,000 in May.

By 0946 GMT, the dollar index was up 0.3 percent at 80.100.

The euro slipped 0.4 percent to $1.4005, having touched the day's low around $1.3984 earlier in the day.

The single European currency offered limited reaction to data showing that overall sentiment in the euro zone rose to 73.3 in June from 70.2 in May. Expectations had been for a 70.8 reading.

European shares rose 0.5 percent, but gains were limited given that U.S. stock futures remained in negative territory.

Higher-risk currencies were on the back foot, with the Australian dollar down 0.8 percent at $0.8010, while the New Zealand dollar was down 0.1 percent.

The dollar was up 0.2 percent at 95.44 yen, but slight risk aversion boosted the Japanese currency against the euro and the Australian dollar.

H1 PERFORMANCE

The dollar has suffered broadly in the first half of 2009 as recovering stock prices has stoked demand for risk -- chipping away at the U.S. currency's safe-haven appeal -- while concerns about the U.S. fiscal position has also weighed on the currency.

Simmering speculation that countries may be considering diversifying reserve holdings in the future to hold less U.S. assets, have also stung the dollar, as such a move would reduce the dollar's role as the world's primary reserve currency.

The dollar has struggled the most against higher-risk currencies including sterling and the Australian and New Zealand dollars, which have each gained more than 10 percent this year.

The dollar index, which tracks its move against a currency basket, has been much less pronounced. It has fallen roughly 1 percent in 2009, largely due to relative weakness in the euro, which has been more or less unchanged versus the U.S. currency.

Some analysts said that market focus may turn away from risk issues in the second half, while economic fundamentals may take up more of the spotlight, which could reward currencies whose economy are seen improving in the near- to mid-term. "The dollar should recover in the second half if U.S. recovery expectations increase," said Johan Javeus, chief currency strategist at SEB Merchant Banking in Stockholm.

Other analysts agreed, but said the dollar may falter if concerns grow about Washington's debt burden as it borrows aggressively to help its economy out of recession, along with ongoing speculation about reserves diversification.

At a gathering of central bankers in Basel at the weekend, China said its policy for currency reserves -- which comprises massive amounts of U.S. Treasuries -- was stable and consistent, with no sudden changes. (Reporting by Naomi Tajitsu; editing by Mike Peacock/Toby Chopra)

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