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FOREX-Dollar on defensive, Aussie hits 14-mth high

Published 09/30/2009, 10:55 PM
Updated 09/30/2009, 10:57 PM

* Swiss subdued vs euro on SNB intervention talk

* Japanese retail demand seen supporting cross/yen

* BOJ tankan survey shows Japanese firms less pessimistic

By Rika Otsuka

TOKYO, Oct 1 (Reuters) - The dollar was on the defensive on Thursday, having resumed its downtrend in the previous session as investors shifted funds out of the greenback and chased growth-linked currencies.

The Australian dollar, seen as a proxy to global growth in the currency market, remained the star performer. The Aussie hit a 14-month high against the U.S. currency above $0.8850, with the next key resistance at $0.8952 -- a level last seen on Aug. 11, 2008.

Wednesday's U.S. data was on the weaker side with the ADP report for private sector employment showing employers cut a larger-than-expected 254,000 jobs in September. Also, unexpected weakness in the U.S. Midwest business activity index did not seem to bode well for Thursday's ISM report.

"The dollar remains on a downward trend, including against the yen," said Hideki Amikura, deputy general manager of the forex section at Nomura Trust Bank.

"Meanwhile, the Australian dollar is enjoying its status as a big beneficiary of the solid Chinese economy," Amikura said. "The Aussie could extend its rally to $0.9 as there are no negative factors preventing investors from buying at the moment."

The dollar edged up 0.1 percent from late U.S. trade to 89.81 yen, staying above an eight-month trough of 88.23 yen hit earlier this week on trading platform EBS. But offers from some Japanese exporters limited gains in the dollar, traders said.

The U.S. currency lost nearly 7 percent against the yen in the previous quarter just ended on Wednesday as investors dumped the dollar on a fall in U.S. Treasury yields. But against the closing level at the end of 2008, dollar/yen was down only 1 percent.

The euro was little changed at $1.4647 after it gained more than 4 percent in July-Spetmber.

Against the Japanese currency, the euro edged up 0.2 percent to 131.56 yen.

Traders said Japanese retail investors are expected to stay buyers of foreign currencies in the fourth quarter, though momentum could slow if Tokyo's Nikkei share average slides further below the key psychological 10,000 level.

The Nikkei was down 1.4 percent at 9,990.03 by the midday break.

The dollar index stood at 76.693, with near term support seen around 76.09. It had risen to as high as 77.33 earlier this week when the broad sell-off in the greenback took a pause.

"The dollar index was unable to hold above 77 for long, and one wonders the market reaction to the ISM report and the upcoming payrolls report," said David Watt, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital. The payrolls report is due on Friday.

"However, it might be that U.S. data is subservient to improving global data, thus weak U.S. data might not lift the dollar in the face of signs of global growth and risk appetites," Watt added.

The Australian dollar hit a 14-month highs of $0.8860 but quickly erased its gains to slide to $0.8837, little changed on the day, as some players booked profits.

The Aussie has seen a brisk rise, buoyed by higher commodity prices and expectations that domestic interest rates will rise faster than other developed economies.

The swiss franc, meanwhile, remained on the backfoot against the euro, having dropped the previous day on speculation the Swiss National Bank may have intervened to weaken its currency.

The market showed muted reaction after the Bank of Japan's closely watched quarterly tankan survey showed on Thursday Japanese business morale improved further as the economy picks up from its worst slump in decades, though it was still negative.

The headline index for big manufacturers' sentiment improved to minus 33 in September from minus 48 three month ago after having hit a record low of minus 58 in the March survey.

The big data piece in the United States is the ISM index and at 52.9 currently the index is at is highest since June 2007 and is forecast to rise to 54.0. The data is due at 1400 GMT.

Weekly jobless claims are also due along with some income and spending data for August. (Additional reporting by Anirban Nag in Sydney; Editing by Chris Gallagher)

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