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FOREX-Dollar off to subdued start, risk reconsidered

Published 01/01/2009, 06:53 PM
Updated 01/01/2009, 06:55 PM

SYDNEY, Jan 2 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar started the new year on a subdued note as tentative signs of an easing in risk aversion benefited higher-yielding currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars. The unwinding of safe-haven bets was reflected in gains for commodities and stocks and a pullback in U.S. Treasuries, the Swiss franc and Japanese yen. Dealers emphasised that thin conditions, with Tokyo markets still on holiday, meant it was too soon to say if this was the start of a trend.

"But it feels like we've passed through the eye of the storm," said Robert Rennie, chief currency strategist at Westpac. "That's not to say there isn't another storm on the horizon, but for the moment the intense pessimism of October and November seems to have eased."

As a result the euro edged up to $1.3990 from $1.3924 late in New York on Wednesday, as the need for safe-haven U.S. Treasuries abated a little. Likewise, the euro also firmed to 127.05 yen from 126.57.

The dollar was steady around 90.75 yen, having been stuck in a 90 to 91 range for more than a week as the market waited to see if the Japanese authorities might intervene to restrain their currency.

Sterling recouped some of its recent hefty losses as investors took profits on short positions. The pound hopped up to $1.4728, from $1.4553 on Wednesday and a seven-year trough around $0.4355 earlier in the week.

Similarly the euro pulled back to 0.9488 pounds, having hit a record high of 0.9805 on Tuesday. Sterling has been on the slide since November, undermined by a deteriorating UK economy and sharp cuts in domestic interest rates.

Commodity-sensitive currencies made gains on Friday in the wake of a rally in base metals and oil after months of weakness. The Australian dollar climbed to $0.7040, after starting the week around $0.6840.

News was thin on the ground on Friday, though a round of manufacturing surveys were due from the major economies later in the day.

The closely watched U.S. Institute for Supply Management index was expected to show a further contraction to 35.5 in December, from an already dire 36.2 in November.

The market is also waiting for fresh details on the scope and size of a proposed U.S. stimulus package, which has been variously touted as worth between $600 billion and 1 trillion dollars.

The bigger the stimulus the more the U.S. government would have to borrow this year, but it could also increase the chances of the U.S. economy recovering quicker than its competitors. (Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Jonathan Standing)

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