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FOREX-Dollar off post-Fed, SNB levels, yen falls

Published 06/25/2009, 03:06 AM
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* Dollar edges down vs euro but still near post-Fed levels

* Fed: no change on debt buying, deflation less of a threat

* Dollar off peaks vs Swissie made on SNB intervention

* Yen falls vs euro, dollar and Aussie

By Charlotte Cooper

TOKYO, June 25 (Reuters) - The dollar on Thursday edged off stronger levels hit after the Federal Reserve meeting, while the yen fell as the market weighed up whether to resume rallies in riskier assets.

The Fed kept to its debt buyback programme and signalled it was less concerned about deflation, but it also said inflation would remain subdued for some time and interest rates would stay low for an extended period.

A poll of top institutions that do business directly with the central bank showed after the decision that the Fed was unlikely to raise interest rates until 2010 or later, though the recession would end this year.

On Wednesday, the dollar also got a boost after traders reported that the Swiss National Bank intervened by selling the Swiss franc for dollars and euros, which sent the dollar up nearly 3 percent against the franc and lifted it across the board.

But the greenback ran out of steam by Thursday, inching lower against a basket of six currencies, although it gained against the yen as the Japanese currency was sold as well against the euro and the Australian dollar.

"The markets have been in risk-avoidance mode recently, but that seems to have been reversed in the last 24 hours," said Drew Bradford, head of foreign exchange at Deutsche Bank in Tokyo.

The dollar climbed 0.6 percent to 96.23 yen although it remained well within its recent 93-100 yen range.

The euro edged up 0.2 percent to $1.3964, after falling 1 percent against the dollar on Wednesday.

But it was still well below Wednesday's pre-Fed high of $1.4139, when the market sold dollars on the view that the U.S. central bank would try to dampen higher rate expectations.

MIXED REACTION

Views were mixed as to what the Fed's statement meant for the market in the medium term, with some expecting bets on gains in riskier currencies such as the Australian dollar to dwindle, as the rallies had got ahead of economic recovery. Others said if equity markets picked up again, riskier currencies would follow.

Many had expected Fed policy-makers would try to neutralise growing expectations for higher interest rates, to prevent a rise in borrowing rates from choking off recovery, but the statement was less explicit than some expected.

"The Fed basically left things unchanged. Although it eased worries about deflation slightly, it didn't change the time frame or the size of its debt purchases," said Daisuke Uno, chief strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.

"What will ultimately happen seems to be the dollar being sold, while interest rates keep rising and stock prices fall after the Fed didn't express concerns about rising interest rates at the meeting."

RISK-TAKERS TRY THE UPSIDE, YEN FALLS

Traders said the currency market mostly shrugged off comments on the dollar from China and Japan on Thursday.

A researcher with the ruling Communist Party said China should buy more gold as the dollar was poised for a fall, while Japan's finance minister reiterated his support for Washington's strong-dollar policy, saying it benefited not only the U.S. but countries around the world.

Tokyo's Nikkei share average climbed 2.2 percent for its strongest one-day percentage gain in more than a month, after falling sharply earlier in the week and as the Fed statement provided no surprises for stocks.

Analysts said there was some short-covering on dollar/yen after it failed to break below a three-week low at 94.88 yen this week, coupled with yen selling by Japanese importers to secure dollars for their payments as the month draws to a close.

Talk of Japanese investment fund outflows has also been keeping a floor under yen crosses this week.

Four new Japanese investment trusts launched on Wednesday, all managed by Nomura Asset Management, attracted a combined 119.6 billion yen ($1.25 bln) in funds, data compiled by Reuters showed, and more are expected before the end of the month.

The euro gained 0.8 percent to 134.28 yen.

The Australian dollar, which has been a popular trade as riskier assets such as shares have rallied, rose 1 percent to 76.99 yen and gained 0.5 percent to $0.8002.

Japanese capital flows data showed Japanese investors were net buyers of foreign bonds to the tune of 278 billion yen ($2.89 billion) last week, the seventh week running in which they have been net buyers. But the amount was the lowest for four weeks, coinciding with a rebound in the yen.

The dollar edged 0.3 percent down to 1.0953 Swiss francs after a one-month high at 1.1026 on trading platform EBS on Wednesday. (Additional reporting by Aiko Hayashi and Satomi Noguchi; Editing by Hugh Lawson)

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