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FOREX-Dollar off lows as stocks retreat

Published 09/10/2009, 07:41 AM
Updated 09/10/2009, 07:45 AM
EUR/GBP
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* Dollar off deepest of week's lows but vulnerable

* Shares, commodities rally seen stretched

* BoE holds QE, rates steady; sterling jumps

* Aussie, kiwi slip on data, comments

(Adds BoE decision, updates prices)

By Tamawa Desai

LONDON, Sept 10 (Reuters) - The dollar edged up against a basket of major currencies on Thursday, coming off its lowest in almost a year and pausing from sharp falls earlier in the week.

Investors booked gains in the Australian and New Zealand dollars, driving them down from this week's one-year highs while the dollar failed to gain much traction after benchmark world stocks hit an 11-month high in early trade.

Sterling rose after the Bank of England left monetary policy unchanged as expected [ID:nTAR005447] [ID:nLAC003435], countering speculation of further easing. The pound hit a near three-week high at $1.6600 , while it touched the day's high versus the euro at 87.58 pence .

The U.S. currency has suffered as investors bet on economic recovery through commodity-linked and higher-yielding currencies. But European stocks turned south after a strong opening and many in the market feel the risk rally is starting to look stretched, giving the dollar hope of a rebound.

"We'll still be looking for some further gains from some of the major pro-cyclical and commodity currencies but there are some risks now starting to develop which suggest that these moves are likely to start running out of steam," said Ian Stannard, senior currency strategist at BNP Paribas.

"The chances are it (the dollar) will probably start to rebound."

Speculators and hedge funds have been seen playing a major role in the recent dollar weakness, traders said.

Some analysts added a growing possibility the dollar would replace the yen as a funding currency for leveraged carry trades. But they also said extended dollar weakness would be needed for that to materialise.

The dollar index <.DXY>, which tracks its performance against a basket of six major currencies, was 0.1 percent up from late U.S. trade at 77.192. The index plumbed 76.803 in intraday trade on Wednesday, its lowest level in almost a year.

The euro fell 0.2 percent at $1.4520, after touching the year's high above $1.4600 on Wednesday.

Against the yen, the dollar was up 0.1 percent at 92.15 yen , after hitting a seven-month low of 91.61 yen on trading platform EBS on Wednesday.

EVENT RISK

Market participants were watching U.S. trade data for July at 1230 GMT, which is forecast to show a slightly wider deficit of $27.35 billion from $27.01 billion in June. [ECI/US]

The New Zealand dollar eased 0.4 percent to $0.6940, falling from just below Wednesday's one-year high above $0.7000 after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor said it was overvalued and on weaker-than-expected Australian jobs data. [ID:nWLF004365]

Earlier the RBNZ left rates on hold at a record low of 2.5 percent as expected but indicated it was less inclined to cut rates again. [ID:nWEL20198]

The Australian dollar fell after data showed Australia's employment dropped by 27,100 jobs in August, more than double a Reuters forecast of 12,500, although the jobless rate held steady at 5.8 percent, better than the 5.9 percent forecast.

The Aussie dropped 0.8 percent to $0.8552 , retreating from Wednesday's one-year high of $0.8669. (Additional reporting by Emelia Sithole-Matarise; Editing by Patrick Graham/Ruth Pitchford)

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