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FOREX-Dollar off low after hitting 6-wk trough on earnings

Published 07/16/2009, 11:31 AM
Updated 07/16/2009, 11:48 AM
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* Dollar index hits lowest since early June on JPM results

* Euro, pound rise on JPM performance but then pare gains

* Kiwi falls after Fitch cuts NZ outlook to negative

* US Philly Fed data weak; earnings still pose risks (Recasts, updates prices, adds quote, details)

By Steven C. Johnson

NEW YORK, July 16 (Reuters) - The dollar hit a six-week low against a basket of major currencies on Thursday after strong results from JPMorgan, but weak manufacturing data and anxiety about other U.S. bank earnings helped it pare its losses.

Investors initially sold the dollar for higher-yielding currencies and assets after better-than-expected earnings from JPMorgan Chase boosted hopes for a U.S. recovery and diminished the greenback's safe-haven appeal.

A decline in the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits also lifted spirits.

However, the dollar rebounded against most currencies after data showed factory activity in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region contracted for a 10th straight month in July. For more on U.S. data, see [ID:nN16406468] and [ID:nN16256518]

Trepidation about upcoming earnings reports from Citigroup and Bank of America was also keeping a lid on investor enthusiasm.

"The risk rally is getting a little long in the tooth," said Jacob Oubina, strategist at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey. "Tomorrow we have a few banks reporting that can be seen as weaker members of the group, and if they disappoint, we could be in for a very ugly day," he said.

An index that measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies fell to its lowest level since June 4 before rebounding to trade unchanged from late Wednesday <.DXY>.

The euro last traded at $1.4112 , up 0.1 percent but off a session peak of $1.4165. Sterling was flat at $1.6420 after rising as high as $1.6476 earlier.

The dollar fell 0.8 percent to 93.50 yen while the euro and sterling also slipped against the Japanese currency.

MARKETS STILL CAUTIOUS

Some analysts said that suggests markets remain cautious despite a string of stronger-than-expected earnings this week from JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Intel .

"The financials beat the numbers with very clear help from the government, but when you look at the real economy companies, you're seeing a difficult road for them," said Boris Schlossberg, head of FX research at GFT Forex in New York. "I still think the problems in the real economy still persist."

Some analysts also said the breakdown of bailout talks between the U.S. government and CIT Group , a lender to small U.S. firms, was adding to anxiety.

The New Zealand dollar fell 0.6 percent to $0.6450 after ratings agency Fitch downgraded New Zealand's sovereign outlook to negative, citing a high current account deficit. [ID:nWEL113714]

Still, there were signs of encouragement. One came from China, where data showed the economy grew 7.9 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier. That beat expectations and boosted hope the biggest emerging economy will lead the way out of the worst global downturn since the 1930s. [ID:nSP537798]

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, speaking after a meeting with his French counterpart, cited a "very encouraging" improvement in financial system stability. [ID:nLG130855]

Also on Thursday, data showed the United States saw an overall net capital outflow of $66.6 billion in May, a month during which the dollar lost more than 6 percent of its value.

Market reaction was limited, though Bank of New York-Mellon strategist Michael Woolfolk said signs of falling foreign demand for U.S. assets could be a longer-term dollar negative.

"The U.S. has a large current account deficit. In recent months we seem to be having trouble financing it," he said.

(Additional reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss in New York and Naomi Tajitsu in London; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

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