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FOREX-Dollar near 14-month low as official anxiety grows

Published 10/20/2009, 09:35 AM
Updated 10/20/2009, 09:39 AM
SOGN
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* Dollar extends broad losses, hits 14-month low vs basket

* Weakness on mix of Bernanke, Trichet, RBA, Fujii, stocks

* Euro nears $1.50 but options-related selling caps gains

* U.S. inflation data weak, Canada keeps rates steady (Updates prices, adds comment, U.S. data; changes byline, dateline, previous LONDON)

By Steven C. Johnson

NEW YORK, Oct 20 (Reuters) - The dollar hit a 14-month low against a basket of currencies on Tuesday as policymakers in Europe and Asia remarked on the dollar slide, but options-related buying kept it from pushing through $1.50 per euro and 90 yen.

Strength in global stocks, sparked by Apple Inc's forecast-beating third-quarter earnings, also fed traders' appetite to sell dollars for higher-yielding currencies and assets more closely correlated with economic recovery.

Data showing an unexpected decline in U.S. producer prices bolstered the view that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at record lows for some time yet.

Dollar weakness has unnerved policymakers around the world. Henri Guaino, a top adviser to French President Nicolas Sarkozy, on Tuesday said a euro at $1.50 is a "disaster" for European industry.

China's yuan also rose against the dollar in the benchmark non-deliverable forwards market after Market News International quoted an unnamed Chinese government source calling for a reversal of the dollar's slide.

But until the market hears stronger rhetoric from the likes of European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, low U.S. rates coupled with rising asset and commodity prices will probably continue to weigh on the dollar, analysts say.

"It's one thing to say you want the dollar to stop weakening, it's another to put your money where your mouth is," said Peter Frank, senior strategist at Societe Generale in London. "The market isn't there yet, and won't take notice until it hears this kind of commentary more and from higher ranking officials."

Against a basket of six major currencies, the dollar was down 0.4 percent against a basket of six major currencies at 75.225 after earlier hitting 75.103, a 14-month low.

After failing to take out options barriers at $1.50, the euro was last at $1.4975, up 0.1 percent. It earlier touched a 14-month high of $1.4994.

A trade-weighted measure of the euro's value against 24 major trading partners was fixed lower on Monday, but remained very close to its all-time high.

The dollar fell as low as 90.08 yen, aided by the narrowing of the U.S.-Japanese 10-year bond yield spread to 200 basis points Tuesday from around 215 basis points late last week. It was last down 0.4 percent at 90.33 yen.

Comments by Japanese Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii that dollar weakness was due to U.S. monetary easing were used as an excuse to sell the dollar down to 90 yen, where traders said there were options expiries later on Tuesday.

The Australian dollar climbed as far as $0.9310 after minutes from the Oct. 6 Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting said it may be imprudent to keep rates very low.

Data showing a decline in U.S. producer prices and a slight increase in starts on new houses did little to help the dollar, and analysts said weak data and an overall taste for risk and higher-yield assets were both hurting the currency.

"It's heads you lose and tails you lose in the case of the dollar," said Nick Bennenbroek, head of FX strategy at Wells Fargo in New York. "This just goes to show you how bearish the market is on the dollar."

That sentiment is keeping policymakers nervous in North and South America as well.

The U.S. dollar rose 0.8 percent against its Canadian counterpart to C$1.0366 after the Bank of Canada kept interest rates on hold and said Canadian dollar strength would "more than fully offset" favorable economic developments.

It fell 1.7 percent to 1.7350 Brazilian reals after Brazil announced plans to tax fixed-income and stock investment from overseas in order to stem recent currency strength.

(Additional reporting by Jamie McGeever in London and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss in New York) (Editing by Theodore d'Afflisio)

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