FOREX-Dollar mired near lows, yen on intervention watch

Published 10/06/2010, 08:59 PM
Updated 10/06/2010, 09:04 PM

* Caution on Japan intervention heightened after dollar falls

* Some think Japan may not intervene before weekend G7 meet

* Focus on Trichet's comments at ECB policy meeting

* Aussie hits new 2-year high vs dollar on solid jobs data

By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, Oct 7 (Reuters) - The dollar was mired near a 15-year low versus the Japanese yen and an eight-month low against the euro on Thursday on the spectre of more money-printing by the U.S. Federal Reserve as early as next month.

The dollar's latest decline has made many traders nervous about Japanese intervention, as the U.S. currency was flirting with the levels where Tokyo started its first intervention in six years on Sept. 15.

The dollar stood at 83.00 yen, edging up from a 15-year low of 82.75 hit on Wednesday as traders suspect Japanese intervention would most likely take place during Asian trade.

Still, some market players speculate that Japan may refrain from intervention ahead of a Group of Seven (G7) policy makers meeting this weekend where the threat of "currency war" is likely to dominate discussion.

Fuelling such a view were comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Wednesday that global institutions must persuade emerging nations such as China to let their currencies rise or risk a round of competitive depreciations that would endanger the world economy..

Naoyuki Shinohara, deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund and former Japanese vice finance minister for international affiairs, also said in an interview that he saw little point in Japan trying to guide the yen.

The euro traded at $1.3918, after rising to an eight-month high of $1.3949 on Wednesday, shrugging off Fitch's downgrade of its rating on Ireland's debt.

It faces major resistance around $1.3956, a 50 percent retracement of its descent from a record peak around $1.6040 in 2008 to a four-year low of $1.1876 hit in June.

Given the market's fixation with U.S. quantitative easing expectations, however, the euro has more room to gain, especially if European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet makes it clear later in the day that he is not going to join the Fed and the Bank of Japan in pursuit of more monetary easing.

Trichet will hold a news conference after the bank's policy meeting, which is expected to keep interest rates on hold at 1.0 percent.

"If Trichet shows a negative stance towards easing, the clear difference in their policy stance would likely lead to further gains in the euro," said Tohru Sasaki, head of Japan rates and forex research at JP Morgan Chase Bank.

The euro is also likely to gain against the yen, after the Bank of Japan's easing steps earlier this week including a programme to purchase various assets, Sasaki said.

The euro fetched 115.50 yen, after having risen to a five-month high of 115.64 yen on Wednesday.

The Australian dollar hit a new two-year high of $0.9833 after solid Australian job data boosted expectations of a future rate hike by the Australian central bank. (Additional reporting by Reuters FX analyst Krishna Kumar in Sydney; Editing by Edmund Klamann)

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