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FOREX-Dollar lower in thin trade; market eyes U.S. data

Published 12/24/2009, 07:59 AM
Updated 12/24/2009, 08:03 AM

* Dollar rally stalls after weak U.S. home sales data Weds

* Euro rises above $1.44 but on course for big monthly fall

* Trade very thin; U.S. jobless, durable goods data eyed

(Updates prices, adds new quotes)

By Jessica Mortimer

LONDON, Dec 24 (Reuters) - The dollar fell on Thursday, extending losses after weak U.S. housing data the previous day, as investors awaited U.S. jobless claims and durable goods data.

Figures on Wednesday showed sales of U.S. new homes unexpectedly fell to their lowest level in seven months in November, pushing the dollar down and taking the euro, yen and other major currencies off multi-week lows.

Thursday's focus will be on weekly U.S. jobless claims and durable goods data at 1330 GMT as the market tries to gauge if a recent improvement in monthly payrolls will be sustained and what that means for the timing of U.S. rate increases.

Trade was extremely thin ahead of Friday's Christmas holiday in Europe and the United States, however, and traders were wary of reading too much into current price movements.

"The dollar has given up some of its gains after yesterday's housing data although we're not seeing it move big figures. It could move some more if the numbers this afternoon don't come in as anticipated," said ETX Capital FX Broker Richard Wilshire.

"This year has been totally dominated by the ebb and flow of risk appetite, but over the last month or so we have started to see the dollar's fortunes returning to more normal drivers like its own economic data," he added.

The dollar index, a gauge of its performance against six other major currencies, was down 0.4 percent by 1223 GMT at 77.580, sitting below this week's three-month high of 78.449.

The euro rose 0.5 percent to $1.4401, holding above its weakest levels since early September after dipping near $1.42 this week, dented by concerns about sovereign ratings after a third ratings downgrade on Greek debt.

The single currency's falls in recent days, however, still left it down around 4 percent against the dollar so far this month and on course for its biggest monthly fall since January.

DOLLAR OUTLOOK

Data in early December showing the U.S. lost far fewer jobs than expected last month fanned optimism among investors that the battered labour market was turning around, triggering a broad dollar rise which has lasted most of December.

"The new home sales data was the catalyst to push the dollar lower - the market has become used to a flow of upside surprises in U.S. numbers recently and this has just taken a bit of the shine off the dollar," said Adam Cole, global head of FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

The dollar remained close to recent highs, but some analysts said charts showed momentum for the dollar's move up against the euro and yen -- aided by year-end closing of short positions against the greenback -- may be tailing off.

"I'm not sure if yesterday was the end of position adjustment or not but I think the adjustment of the dollar and the U.S. yield is probably near the end," said Tohru Sasaki, chief FX strategist Japan at JP Morgan Securities in Tokyo.

The dollar slipped 0.4 percent to 91.32 yen after touching a two-month high of 91.88 yen this week. Japanese markets are open on Friday when London and New York are shut.

Traders said options expiries in dollar/yen later Thursday at 90.50, 91.00 and 91.50 yen may rein in moves in the pair.

The dollar has rebounded from a 14-year low of 84.82 yen set at the end of November. It climbed above its 100-day moving average on Monday, after mostly trading below that level since June, and the average is now around 90.90 yen.

(Additional reporting by Charlotte Cooper in Tokyo)

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