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FOREX-Dollar languishes, euro climbs towards $1.40

Published 10/13/2010, 02:32 AM

* Euro extends gains after Fed minutes, Weber comments

* But euro still faces hurdle at $1.40 area

* Euro break above $1.4025-45 would open way to more gains

* Dollar up vs yen, at record low on Swissie, index soft

By Charlotte Cooper and Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, Oct 13 (Reuters) - The dollar came under broad selling pressure on Wednesday, with investors emboldened to test key lows against the euro, the Swiss franc and a basket of currencies as more signs emerged pointing to U.S. policy easing.

The euro looked set for a challenge of $1.40 and its eight-month high at $1.4030 after Federal Reserve minutes the day before reinforced expectations of more quantitative easing, with a sustained break above the $1.4025-45 area seen as heralding further gains.

But traders were cautious that several currencies' uptrends against the dollar, which revisited a record low against the Swiss franc, were becoming stretched and the time for consolidation could be near.

Dealers said hawkish comments from European Central Bank Governing Council member Axel Weber on Tuesday, which highlighted the difference in direction between Fed and ECB policy, gave the euro an added lift, with talk of a big stop-loss buy order lurking just below $1.40.

But they cautioned that euro zone policymakers were likely to be increasingly unhappy if the euro rose above $1.40.

"There's psychological resistance around $1.40 as (Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude) Juncker has said he was not happy with the euro reaching that level," a Japanese bank trader said.

"Still, it's hard to go long on the dollar when it's so obvious that the United States wants a weaker dollar."

The euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.3955, triggering stop-loss orders around $1.3950-60 before running into selling at $1.3970-90. Resistance was expected at $1.3985, Friday's session high, with talk of more stop-losses lined up above that level.

The $1.4030 high is seen as the target to beat if the euro is to push higher rather than correct downwards.

Chartwise, it is seen gearing up to test the $1.4025-45 area, with a sustained break opening the way for a rise to $1.4195-1.4220 -- the lows of December and the highs of late January.

On the downside, its 200-week moving average sits at $1.3926.

The euro gained across the board, climbing against the yen, sterling and the Swiss franc.

Robert Ryan, currency strategist at BNP Paribas in Singapore, said that although the U.S. quantitative easing theme was starting to look overpriced, the risk was that reserve management by Asian central banks could keep the euro going higher.

"As long as the market continues to see the BOJ, the BOE and the Fed pumping liquidity in, it's going to go into emerging markets and emerging markets are going to pump it back into the euro," Ryan said.

"The euro is the safety valve for all these adjustments."

REBOUND IN THE OFFING?

Minutes of the Fed's Sept. 21 meeting showed officials thought the struggling U.S. recovery might soon need more help and they discussed several ways to provide it, including possible adoption of a price-level target and the possibility of buying more longer-term U.S. government debt.

In contrast, Weber said the ECB's government bond-buying programme had not worked and should be scrapped.

The market has become very short of dollars on QE expectations, raising the risk of a rebound as it becomes harder for players to sell it down further.

"We are due for a short cover -- we're definitely due for something. That might well be in the last quarter of the year but there are no catalysts around at the moment," said Robert Reilly, co-head of flow fixed income and FX for Asia at SG CIB.

A rise in U.S. Treasury yields, coming on the back of a lacklustre debt sale, failed to give the dollar much of a boost against the yen and it languished near a nine-month trough against a basket of currencies.

The dollar index fell 0.3 percent to 77.15, not far above the nine-month low of 76.906 set last week, although it has bounced off the 76.90 area twice in the past week.

The dollar also eased to a record low of 0.9546 Swiss francs while the Australian dollar edged back towards last week's 28-year high of $0.9918.

The dollar firmed 0.1 percent against the yen to 81.80 yen, supported by nervousness that Japanese authorities could intervene the closer it gets to its record low of 79.75 yen.

Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said in parliament that he could not answer whether or not Japan would intervene in the market.

But the dollar needs to rise above the 82.87-83.15 level to neutralise its bearish trend and traders doubt that will happen, given hefty offers expected from Japanese exporters.

The dollar hit a 15-year low of 81.37 yen on Monday. (Additional reporting by Reuters FX analysts Krishna Kumar in Sydney; Editing by Edmund Klamann)

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