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FOREX-Dollar hovers near lows ahead of Fed, yen slides

Published 06/24/2009, 02:12 AM
Updated 06/24/2009, 02:16 AM
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* Euro holds gains after dollar sold on Fed expectations

* Fed seen dampening rate hike prospects, questions over QE

* Yen falls as cross rebound extends

By Charlotte Cooper

TOKYO, June 24 (Reuters) - The dollar sat on steep losses on Wednesday, after tumbling sharply against the euro and other majors, as the market got set for the Federal Reserve to dampen expectations for higher interest rates.

Policy makers at the Fed began their two-day meeting on Tuesday and many expect they will want to play down expectations of higher interest rates that have built in the market, for fear these will choke an economic recovery.

Currencies such as the Australian dollar, which have been favoured as recovery plays against the dollar and yen, leapt 1 percent or more on Tuesday as the greenback lost favour.

The euro also jumped 1.5 percent, helped by comments from a European Central Bank policy maker that he saw no need for more policy measures at the moment to get the economy back in shape.

"The markets are adjusting themselves ahead of the FOMC, about their over-expectations for Fed tightening, and are gradually coming back to reality," said Masafumi Yamamoto, head of FX strategy Japan at Royal Bank of Scotland.

The euro held firm at $1.4099, after jumping to $1.4109 the previous day, its highest since June 12, although it was still below its 2009 peak of $1.4339.

It gained 0.6 percent to 134.82 yen after rising nearly 1 percent on Tuesday.

The Australian dollar edged up 0.3 percent to $0.7962 and 0.6 percent to 76.18 yen.

The Aussie has risen 26 percent against the dollar since its rally started in the first quarter and 37 percent against the yen, although it has backed off its rally highs as investor confidence has faltered on nervousness that gains have got ahead of an actual economic recovery.

"The market is likely to go back to a 'recovery trade' after some adjustments. Still, I expect the corrective phase to last a while," said Tohru Sasaki, chief FX strategist at JPMorgan Chase Bank in Tokyo.

NO COLD TURKEY

The Fed, which makes its announcement at 1815 GMT, will also be under scrutiny for what it says about its asset buying programme aimed at keeping longer-term interest rates down.

Investors want to know if it will keep and extend the programme, which includes buying U.S. Treasuries, or whether it will even want to start winding the measures down.

"The statement is expected by the market to reaffirm a commitment to low rates, signal emergency lending is already tapering off but also signal that the Fed is unlikely to stop its asset purchases cold turkey," UBS analysts said in a client note.

The dollar gained on the yen, climbing 0.4 percent to 95.62 yen after shedding 0.7 percent on Tuesday, although it remains well within a 94-100 yen range of the past two months.

Dealers said the market had covered short dollar positions ahead of the Tokyo fixing earlier due to talk about several big investment trusts expected to be launched on Wednesday which were likely to attract plenty of funds for investment abroad.

However one trader at a Japanese trust bank said flows related to the investment trusts, or "toshin", were likely to come in London trade rather than Tokyo hours.

A newspaper report that Japanese Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano's political support group accepted illegal donations from a dummy organisation had little impact in the currency market, dealers said.

Yosano was quoted by Kyodo news agency as saying he did not believe there had been wrong-doing. Polls show the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) risks losing to the opposition Democratic Party in elections which must be held by October.

"Ultimately, the report is unlikely to have any impact in the currency market as the financial policy of the LDP and the Democrats isn't all that different, even if the Democrats were to end up winning the election," said Hideki Amikura, a deputy general manager of forex trading at Nomura Trust and Banking. (Additional reporting by Aiko Hayashi and Satomi Noguchi; Editing by Joseph Radford)

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