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FOREX-Dollar holds ground after jump, ECB and BOE in focus

Published 06/03/2009, 11:59 PM
Updated 06/04/2009, 12:08 AM
TGT
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* Dollar holds gains made Wed after data, cbanker comments

* Cross/yen off lows after previous day's falls

* Outcome of ECB, BOE meetings in focus

By Aiko Hayashi

TOKYO, June 4 (Reuters) - The dollar mostly held its ground on Thursday after a big reversal from 2009 lows on comments from Asian monetary officials and weaker-than-expected U.S. data that took the wind out of a risk rally in other major currencies.

Investors had a reality check on Wednesday when data showed the vast U.S. service sector contracted for the eighth straight month in May and employers axed 532,000 private-sector jobs, undermining optimism about an economic turnaround.

Comments from several Asian monetary officials to Reuters that Asian central banks would keep buying Treasuries even if the U.S.' credit rating were to be cut also boosted the dollar.

The greenback has come under pressure in the past few weeks partly because the market is nervous about the U.S.' ability to finance its growing debt issuance.

The dollar rebounded more than 1 percent from 2009 lows against a basket of six currencies on Wednesday although the move had stalled by Thursday as investors awaited policy decisions at the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.

"Asia's left picking up the pieces after a big move overnight," said a senior trader at a European bank in Hong Kong.

He said the dollar's rise was a correction to its steep losses of recent weeks rather than a change in trend.

"The dollar has retraced strongly and Asia is having a day of consolidation. But the dollar index and the dollar against the majors seems to have found a base."

The euro was flat at $1.4170 on electronic trading platform EBS, well off its 2009 high of $1.4339 after falling 1 percent on Wednesday.

The dollar gained 0.1 percent to 96.12 yen, while the euro rose 0.3 percent to 136.34 yen.

The European Central Bank is expected to hold interest rates at 1 percent when it announces its decision at 1145 GMT.

The market is waiting to see details of its covered bond purchase plan to keep long-term rates down and see what its staff projects for economic growth and inflation this year and next.

Sterling held steady from late U.S. levels at $1.6310 after hitting a seven-month peak of $1.6664 on Wednesday. It has gained about 19 percent since mid-March.

The Bank of England is expected to keep its benchmark rate at 0.5 percent at its announcement at 1100 GMT. It is also likely to stick to its current 125 billion pound ($208 billion) target for quantitative easing.

THE RISK RALLY AND THE YEN

Losses on Wall Street on Wednesday added to profit-taking on the likes of the euro, sterling and the Australian dollar, which have benefited against the dollar and yen as investors have plucked up courage to shift money out of the safe-haven dollar.

"The U.S. data reminded market participants once again that the economic outlook isn't so rosy as many have been saying lately," said Hideki Amikura, deputy general manager of forex trading at Nomura Trust and Banking.

One analyst said there had been some importer demand out of Tokyo for cross/yen early in the day. The Australian dollar gained 0.3 percent to 76.92 yen but the New Zealand dollar later lost ground, falling 0.1 percent.

Both tumbled on Wednesday, with the Aussie losing more than 2 percent against the dollar and the kiwi more than 3 percent. On Thursday, the Aussie edged up 0.2 percent to $0.8010 and the kiwi slipped 0.4 percent to $0.6313.

Australia's central bank governor said scope remained to ease monetary policy further but the economy was well placed for expansion towards the end of the year.

Longer term, plenty of questions still hang over the dollar, with investors concerned about rising U.S. government debt, upward pressure on bond yields and that feeding through to mortgage lending rates and potentially stunting a recovery.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told the House of Representatives Budget Committee rising U.S. debt was contributing to a spike in longer-term interest rates and now was the time to start working on reining in deficits.

But he gave no clue as to whether the U.S. central bank would step up its purchases of government debt or mortgage-backed securities to offset the rising borrowing rates, something investors have been watching for.

"In the mid- to long-term, it's hard to deny the presence of downward pressure on the dollar because of various fallout from growing deficits in the U.S. economy," said Tsutomu Soma, a senior manager at Okasan Securities. (Additional reporting Charlotte Cooper; Editing by Chris Gallagher)

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