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FOREX-Dollar hits multiweek lows vs yen, euro

Published 08/27/2009, 04:20 PM
Updated 08/27/2009, 04:27 PM

* Yen up as markets doubtful about strength of recovery

* Late recovery on Wall Street boosts euro, risk FX

* Thin trading conditions exacerbate moves (Updates prices)

By Steven C. Johnson

NEW YORK, Aug 27 (Reuters) - The dollar fell to multiweek lows against the yen and euro on Thursday and commodity-linked currencies rallied as a recovery in U.S. stocks and the price of oil quelled some worries about the global economy.

Earlier, a slide in Chinese and European stocks stoked caution about the global outlook, prompted investors to buy the yen as a safe haven and sell perceived higher-risk currencies such as the euro.

But a rebound that took Wall Street stock indexes back to levels last seen in October 2008 boosted the euro to a three-week high against the dollar. Traders, however, said low volume was responsible for the ferocity of the euro's reversal.

"It's a late-August market. People were long dollars and got squeezed when U.S. stocks recovered," said Brian Dolan, chief strategist at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey.

But he said the moves camouflaged a growing sense among investors that recent asset price gains and optimism about a global economic recovery have been overdone.

"Risk assets are not rallying as they have and there's a sense of lethargy setting in that certainly suggests enthusiasm is waning," Dolan said.

Analysts said that anxiety was helping to lift the yen. The dollar fell 0.8 percent to 93.48 yen, just above a five-week low touched earlier, while sterling also hit its lowest level against the yen since mid-July.

When risk aversion rises, investors often buy the Japanese and U.S. currencies, either as safe havens or because they need to exit trades financed with cheaply-borrowed yen or dollars.

Some in the market said the yen was also supported by a report that China's sovereign wealth fund was exploring investment in Japan.

The euro rose 0.8 percent to $1.4360, surging higher as a U.S. stock rebound triggered automatic buy orders against the dollar. It had fallen as low as $1.4220 earlier.

The euro was down 0.1 percent at 134.18 yen, but well off a session low of 132.94 yen.

Sterling also erased earlier losses to rise 0.2 percent to $1.6276. The Australian dollar rose 1.6 percent to $0.8403 while the U.S. dollar fell 1.1 percent against its Canadian counterpart to C$1.0858.

INVESTORS REMAIN CAUTIOUS

A revised report showing slower-than-expected contraction in the U.S. economy in the April-to-June period and a decline in weekly jobless claims soothed some nerves. But analysts said the data wasn't as rosy as it may have first appeared.

"I just think that the market is getting ahead of itself in terms of pricing in an improvement in the fundamental outlook," said Win Thin, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.

He said that while data showed the number of U.S. workers on long-term unemployment fell to its lowest level since April, the "exhaustion rate" -- the percentage of unemployed workers who couldn't find a job before drawing their last benefit check -- rose to 50.7 percent in July, the highest since 1972.

Also troubling was a report from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp saying the number of problem U.S. banks and thrifts rose sharply to 416 in the second quarter. The FDIC also said the financial industry reported a $3.7 billion loss in the second quarter.

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