🐂 Not all bull runs are created equal. November’s AI picks include 5 stocks up +20% eachUnlock Stocks

FOREX-Dollar hits 2-week high as consumer confidence falls

Published 10/27/2009, 04:23 PM
Updated 10/27/2009, 04:27 PM
EUR/JPY
-

* Dollar rises on weak U.S. consumer confidence data

* Euro hits 2-week lows, dollar index at 2-week highs

* Markets look to more U.S. data, Norges Bank decision (Updates prices, adds comment)

By Wanfeng Zhou

NEW YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters) - The dollar rose to a two-week high against the euro on Tuesday after a report showing U.S. consumer confidence deteriorated sharply in October boosted the greenback's safe-haven appeal.

The disappointing confidence data bodes ill for U.S. growth because it indicates lower consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy. Without U.S. consumers, the world economy is also unlikely to recover as swiftly as hoped.

"When the U.S. consumer is not likely to continue spending, it means it's going to be a long, drawn-out type of recovery. Nothing is going to happen overnight," said Dan Cook, senior market analyst at IG Markets in Chicago. "So we see that drive to risk aversion."

The Conference Board's U.S. consumer confidence index fell to its weakest since July and well below forecasts. For story, see [ID:nN27236301]

In late New York trading, the euro fell 0.5 percent to $1.4794 after hitting a session of low $1.4771, its lowest since Oct. 13, according to Reuters data. On Monday, the euro hit a 14-month high of $1.5064 on electronic trading platform EBS.

The euro also fell 0.8 percent to 135.91 yen , pulling back from a more than two-month high hit on Monday near 138.49 yen.

"We're of the mind-set that the euro is a bit overextended. Every single player in the market is long euros and we're seeing a correction now," said Greg Salvaggio, senior vice president of capital markets at Tempus Consulting in Washington.

The ICE Futures dollar index <.DXY>, a measure of its performance against six other major currencies, rose to 76.328, a two-week high, well above a 14-month low of 74.94 hit last week. It last traded up 0.2 percent.

Against the yen, the dollar fell 0.4 percent to 91.83 yen ., below a session high of 92.32 yen, the highest level in more than a month.

OVERLY OPTIMISTIC

Analysts said one of the reasons for the dollar's resilience is a heavy short position on the currency accumulated the last few weeks, a sign that the greenback could rebound in the near term. [IMM/FRX].

Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers Group in Greenwich, Connecticut, said the euro will still probably rally to $1.55 sometime in the fourth quarter, though "foreign-exchange traders have run out of reasons to buy the euro and sell the dollar in the short run."

Recent U.S. economic figures, such as the University of Michigan consumer confidence report and the weekly jobless claims, have not met the market's expectations, raising doubts about the outlook for a recovery.

"The market is beginning to realize that the recovery scenario priced into the current levels of risk assets may be overly optimistic," said Boris Schlossberg, director of currency research at GFT Forex in New York.

He added that Wednesday's U.S. durable goods data will be the "next critical test of the economy's health" and could well determine if the pullback in risk assets could be sustained for the rest of the week.

The dollar also gained 0.4 percent against the Swiss franc to 1.0221 francs , and was up against the New Zealand dollar, which fell 0.6 percent to US$0.7424 .

Market participants also looked ahead to Wednesday's interest-rate decision from Norway and Thursday's first estimate for third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product data.

The Norges Bank is seen raising rates for the first time since the global crisis hit less than two years ago. (Additional reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.