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FOREX-Dollar hits 14-mth low as recovery optimism builds

Published 10/14/2009, 12:12 PM
Updated 10/14/2009, 12:18 PM
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* Dollar hits 14-month low vs euro and dollar index

* JPMorgan earnings, rising stocks boost recovery optimism

* U.S. retail sales data has minimal impact (Recasts, updates prices, adds detail)

By Nick Olivari

NEW YORK, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The dollar slid to a 14-month low against a basket of currencies and the euro on Wednesday, as solid earnings by JPMorgan Chase and rising stock and commodity prices stoked optimism for an improving global economy.

The dollar, which has been a safe-haven investment, was hit by the sharp rise in profit reported by JPMorgan Chase & Co, as well as forecast-beating earnings from Intel Corp late on Tuesday and upbeat Chinese trade data on Wednesday. Those factors all helped brighten the economic outlook and encouraged investors to move into perceived riskier and higher-yielding currencies.

"On the back of a solid start to the earnings season and strong trade and loan growth releases from China, investors are widely seeking risk today," said Camilla Sutton, currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto, in a note to clients. "This has helped push equities and commodities higher and the USD and bond prices lower."

The greenback also remained under broad selling pressure on expectations that U.S. interest rates will stay at very low levels for some time, following comments by Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn on Tuesday. Low rates reduce the attractiveness of U.S. assets and ease demand for the dollars to buy them.

Low U.S. rates also promote the use of the dollar as a funding currency in the carry trade, where investors borrow in one currency, which they then sell to buy higher-yielding assets in another currency.

Midway through the New York session, the euro was last up 0.2 percent at $1.4891 after rising to its highest level since August 2008. Many in the market see the euro climbing further, and some analysts see a break above $1.50 in coming weeks.

Against the yen, the dollar fell 0.3 percent to 89.43 yen.

A rally in the dollar against the yen after U.S. retail sales in September declined less than expected was short-lived.

"The data was pretty solid across the board. It helps support the story that the recovery is building steam and that some of the optimism is justified, although I still don't buy it," said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey.

The yen also drew some support against the dollar from a senior Japanese official who signaled yen-weakening intervention was undesirable.

SHARES RALLY

The better-than-forecast results from JP Morgan and Intel Corp helped push the MSCI all-country world index to a one-year high.

The dollar index, which tracks the dollar's value against a basket of currencies, slid to 75.436, a trough last seen in August 2008. The Swiss franc rose to around 1.0166 francs versus the dollar, its highest since July 2008.

The Australian and Canadian dollars also hit their strongest levels since August 2008, while the Norwegian crown rose to its firmest since September 2008 as U.S. crude oil prices jumped to a 2009 high and gold hit a record high.

Analysts said higher share prices would continue to pummel the dollar on the view that an improving economy would decrease demand for safe-haven dollars.

"The correlation between the equity market and euro/dollar has declined slightly in the past month, but it is still high by historical standards," said Kasper Kirkegaard, currency strategist at Danske Markets in Copenhagen.

Also pressuring the dollar were comments from Fed Vice Chairman Kohn on Tuesday that the economy would not snap back quickly from its deep recession, bolstering the view for low U.S. rates. (Additional reporting by Wanfeng Zhou in New York and Jessica Mortimer in London; Editing by Leslie Adler)

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